Championship Opta Stats: 10 Bets for New Years Day

Norwich vs Southampton

Canaries to fall to rare home defeat

The Opta Stat:

"Southampton have won their last two league games on New Year's Day, with those wins coming against Arsenal in 2015 (2-0) and Spurs in 2020 (1-0)"

With Leeds and Ipswich dropping points on Friday evening, Southampton were able to take full advantage. The Saints beat Plymouth 2-1, however, the margin of victory should have far more comprehensive. As well as having 78% possession, they ran up an xG of 3.12 and had 26 shots, 16 of which were inside the box. The Saints haven't been as clinical on the road as they would have liked so far, yet they've suffered just two defeats on their travels and have an excellent record when travelling to bottom half opposition.

Norwich will be glad to return to Carrow Road where they have been much stronger, however, the majority of their victories (with the exception of Hull) have been against bottom half sides. They're unbeaten in four at home, yet their two matches here against top four outfits have both ended in defeat.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Southampton to beat Norwich at 21/202.05

Bristol City vs Millwall

Points shared at Ashton Gate

The Opta Stat:

"Millwall have failed to score in their last two league games against Bristol City, after netting in each of their previous 10 against them (18 goals)"

Bristol City have significantly improved under Liam Manning although they weren't at their best on Friday night. Even the return of Nahki Wells couldn't help them find a way past Birmingham, despite being marginally the better side throughout the 90.

Millwall made slow progress under Joe Edwards, however, the Lions are starting to show some signs of life. They are well-organised and have become incredibly tough to beat. They've conceded just once across their last four goals and have only been defeated four times on the road including when travelling to the top two.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Draw in Bristol City vs Millwall at 23/10

Swansea vs West Brom

BTTS in South Wales

The Opta Stat:

"Swansea won their last league game played on New Year's Day back in 2019, when they beat Reading 4-1 away from home. This is their first home game on this date since a 3-2 loss to Man City in 2014"

Despite their lack of a permanent manager, Swansea showed tremendous spirit to come from 2-1 down to snatch a point against in-form Coventry. The Swans may be struggling for victories, yet they do tend to find the net, particularly at home. Only Watford and Sunderland (in which they were reduced to ten men) have prevented them from scoring in front of their own fans this campaign and they should be bouyed by their late show against the Sky Blues.

West Brom continuted to excel at the Hawthorns with a 1-0 victory over Leeds. Carlos Corberan's side have been slightly less convincing and a little leakier on the road this season, however, they have still picked up some decent results. Daryl Dike's imminent return is a boost for the Baggies and they should be able to find a way past Swansea's flimsy back-line.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back BTTS in Swansea vs West Brom at 20/231.87

Leicester vs Huddersfield

Foxes to ease to victory

Opta Stat:

"Huddersfield have lost their last eight away league games against Leicester, a run that stretches back to 1971. Their last win there was in October 1954 in a top-flight match"

Leicester ended 2023 eight points clear at the top of the table and with some of the teams below them dropping points, they have a comfortable cushion and look destined for an immediate return to the top flight. At the KP, they've netted ten times across their last three and have kept seven clean sheets in the last nine.

Huddersfield are playing reasonably well and they have found the net in recent visits to Leeds and Coventry. This is tougher and they could be easily nullified by the watertight hosts. With just four away goals since October 28th, they could draw another blank here.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Leicester to Win Both Halves at 5/42.25

QPR vs Cardiff

Low-scoring draw in West London

The Opta Stat:

"Cardiff have lost their last five league games played on New Year's Day - their last win on that day came back in 2013 against Birmingham City"

Neither of these sides are playing particularly well heading into this fixture and they will be desperate for January reinforcements. Marti Cifuentes has improved QPR's stability at the back, yet they are now winless in five. They've found the net just once in their last five outings and although they played well against high-flying Ipswich, they still couldn't find a way through.

Cardiff have been one of the most inconsistent sides in the second tier this season and remain tough to predict. They've failed to score in three of their last five and were benefitted from defensive errors against Sheffield Wednesday. With six blanks in nine, they could find it tough against the R's relatively solid back-line.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Draw in QPR vs Cardiff at 21/103.10

Plymouth vs Watford

Entertaining start to 2024 in Devon

Opta Stat:

"Plymouth Argyle have won four of their last five league games played on New Year's Day (L1), all at Home Park"

Managerless Plymouth have won just one of their last six, yet they've still been thoroughly entertaining to watch. The Pilgrims' games here have averaged 4.08 goals per game and they should enjoy a visit from an attack-minded Watford side. The hosts have scored 2+ goals in each of their last six here and 3+ in four of those games. They've kept just three clean sheets in front of their own fans this season and are unlikely to keep the Hornets off the scoresheet.

Watford were held to a 1-1 draw against Stoke, yet they were the better side, despite going down to ten men. They have netted nine times across their last three away games and haven't kept a clean sheet on the road since the beginning of November. This could be a classic.

The Betfair Bet:

• Bet Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS at 4/51.80

Stoke vs Ipswich

Potters to nick a point in Staffordshire

Opta Stat:

"Stoke are unbeaten in their last eight home league games against Ipswich (W5 D3) since a 1-0 defeat back in March 1997"

Stoke couldn't find a way past ten-man Watford last time out, yet they are now unbeaten in five Championship matches. The Potters have drawn in four of those games, however, they've outshot their opponents in each of their last three home matches. Stoke have used more players than other Championship sides, suggesting that they haven't found their best XI just yet, however, Steven Schumacher's sides are always strong in front of their own fans.

Ipswich are on their longest winless run of the campaign and have failed to win any of their last four. There are plenty of injuries in the squad and Kieran McKenna heavily rotated on Friday night. They will be difficult to beat, yet Stoke could be good enough to get a point.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Stoke Draw No Bet at 1/12.00

Middlesbrough vs Coventry

BTTS at Riverside

Opta Stat:

"Coventry City have won four of their last five league matches on New Year's Day, although they drew 1-1 with Bristol City last year"

Injury-hit Middlesbrough were victorious on Friday night against Huddersfield, although they gave plenty of chances away in the process. At the Riverside, they have kept things fairly tight although they've only managed to keep a clean sheet in one of their last three matches here.

Coventry away games have averaged 2.92 goals per game and they have recently picked up notable results at Sunderland and Leeds. The Sky Blues have been defensively solid this season, yet they came unstuck against Swansea on Friday night. 67% of their matches on the road have landed BTTS and this could go the same way.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back BTTS at 7/101.70

Leeds vs Birmingham

Welsh wonder to fire Leeds to victory

Opta Stat:

"Birmingham City are winless in their last 13 league games on New Year's Day (D4 L9) since a 2-1 away win at Mansfield Town in 1991"

Leeds' away troubles continued on Friday with tame 1-0 defeat to West Brom. Having recorded back-to-back losses, they will be keen to return to Elland Road. They remain unbeaten here and have netted 19 times across their last seven outings. Winger Dan James has been one of many star performers for the hosts with six of his seven goals coming here in West Yorkshire. Due to his position, he is a slightly bigger price than many of his teammates and looks backable.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Dan James to Score Anytime at 6/42.50

Blackburn vs Rotherham

Improving Millers to push Rovers all the way

Opta Stat:

"The only previous league meeting between Blackburn and Rotherham on New Year's Day in 2018 - Rovers took the lead through Bradley Dack before a late equaliser from David Ball to end 1-1"

There wasn't much between these two when they met five years ago and this is also likely to be fairly close. Leam Richardson has made the Millers extremely competitive and despite only drawing with Sunderland on Friday evening, they were the better side throughout.

Blackburn are on a four-game losing streak and if they were to be defeated here, it would be their worst run of the campaign. Nevertheless, they showed plenty of heart against Hull and may take at least a point here.

The Millers' last three matches under Richardson have been goalless at the break and this could go the same way.

The Betfair Bet:

• Back Half Time Draw in Blackburn vs Rotherham at 7/52.40