"EFL play-off semi-final second legs have produced 2.54 goals per-game with 49% of fixtures delivering Over 2.5 Goals 56% of matches rewarding Both Teams To Score backers"
Nottingham Forest hold a 2-1 lead in their Championship play-off semi-final showdown with Sheffield United ahead of Tuesday night's second leg. Mark O'Haire previews the encounter...
First leg review
A late Sander Berge goal gave Sheffield United hope going into Tuesday night's second leg against Nottingham Forest. The Blades were largely outplayed at Bramall Lane and trailed early on when Jack Colback scored on the rebound after Wes Foderingham had kept out Philip Zinckernagel's initial effort.
Brennan Johnson put Forest in control of the pulsating tie in the second-half after a John Egan error but with time almost up, Berge bundled home from a corner to deny the away side a richly deserved two-goal lead.
Forest could have been out of sight
Nottingham Forest head coach Steve Cooper was pleased with his team's performance on Saturday, despite the Tricky Trees' failure to make their dominance count. The Reds could have been out of sight in the first-half, but had to defend well after breaking having come under the cosh from a Sheffield United fightback.
Cooper said, "It coulda, shoulda been a clean-sheet. Could have been more goals. But this is football, and this is the play-offs. I loved our first-half performance. We were dominant. I was really impressed and happy with our mentality and approach to the game. We created more chances than having the one goal in it, but this is football."
Late goals changes the mood
Sheffield United boss Paul Heckingbottom feels Sander Berge's late goal has changed the mood around his side's Championship play-off tie. Speaking post-match, the Blades chief said: "It's half time, there's still loads to go. But you could see the whole body language of everyone after that goal went in. Hopefully it proves to be a pivotal moment for us."
"I thought we started well, there were good moments in the first half but every time we lost the ball they were a threat on the counter which we spoke about, prepared for, and we didn't deal with well enough. We had to be better second half, which we were, however we couldn't break them down when they were sitting in. They defended their box very well."
Both regular season Championship clashes between Nottingham Forest and Sheffield United ended in 1-1 stalemates, with the Tricky Trees netting late equalisers in both games (83rd and 90th minute respectively). Forest return to the City Ground now, with the host having suffered a solitary home reverse to United since 1993 (W7-D6-L1).
Nottingham Forest 2.226/5 have been the Championship's best performing side since Steve Cooper arrived in September. The former Swansea boss has guided the Reds from rock-bottom into promotion contenders, returning the most league points (W22-D10-L6) and being turned over just twice in the club's most recent 18 encounters (W12-D4-L2).
Sheffield United 3.4012/5 finished with a flourish pre-play-offs, pocketing three successive league victories after bagging only three triumphs in their previous 11 encounters. However, the Blades have largely built their promotion challenge upon a strong record at Bramall Lane under Paul Heckingbottom's watch, returning only W3-D4-L4 on the road since Christmas.
EFL play-off semi-final second legs have produced 2.54 goals per-game since 2000 with 49% of fixtures delivering Over 2.5 Goals 2.226/5 and 56% of matches rewarding Both Teams To Score backers 1.9210/11. With that in mind, there's a degree of value found in supporting a repeat of BTTS here, especially after seeing how the frantic first leg played out.
Game state dictates that Sheffield United will need to play on the front-foot and attack at some point as they bid to play their way back into contention, whilst Nottingham Forest represent a real threat in the final-third, particularly when playing at the City Ground. A repeat of the end-to-end first leg showdown could well be on the cards again here.