EFL Championship

Luton Town v Coventry City Play-Off Final: Back NTT20s 15/1 Bet Builder at Wembley

Wembley Stadium
The Championship play-off final will be held at Wembley Stadium

George Elek from Not The Top 20 is here to preview the richest game in football fancying some player stats betting and follows the trends to oppose goals Wembley.

  • Nine of the last 16 finals have seen less than two goals

  • Hamer has had 3+ shots in eight of his last 10 games

  • Gyokeres has committed 7 fouls in his last three games

The Championship Play-Off Final is here and it's one for the neutral, and the romantic.

When Ali and I sat down in May 2016 to record the first ever Not The Top 20 Podcast, Luton had just finished mid-table in League Two, while Coventry were sitting pretty in the top half of League One blissfully unaware that a relegation to the basement awaited them the following season.

Both now sit one game away from the Premier League and serve as evidence that anything is still possible in the EFL, but it shouldn't be forgotten that they are here on merit and this looks like a fierce renewal of the 'richest game in football'.

Luton have been formidable under Rob Edwards and have lost just one game in their last 16, and Coventry's own run isn't dissimilar with just the one defeat dating back to early February under Mark Robins.

Don't mistake this for a clash of the minnows, whoever comes through as the winner looks set to bloody a few noses in the top flight next season.

Leg 1: Under 1.5 goals

Nine of the last 16 Championship Play-Off Finals have finished either 1-0 either way or 0-0 and this looks like it could follow that trend.

Coventry were pretty cosy in keeping one of the Championship's best attacks quiet in the semi-finals when keeping two clean sheets while Luton had the second best defensive record in the league behind Burnley.

Both 0-0 at 13/27.50 and under 1.5 goals at 15/82.88 therefore make obvious appeal, especially when considering Luton's proficiency at set-pieces should be blunted by a Coventry side who have conceded the fewest from those situations in the league.

Luton's resolute shape out of possession and willingness to press from a fairly deep line should stifle Coventry's counter-attacking strengths and the pace of Viktor Gyokeres, adding further fuel to the unders fire.

Leg 2: Hamer to have 3+ shots

Gustavo Hamer scored the only goal in the tie against Middlesbrough, and looks a safe bet to try and repeat the trick at Wembley.

A threat from range both in open play and set-pieces, Hamer has scored 10 goals in the league this season and will come here brimming with confidence after that striker at The Riverside.

He has had three or more shots in eight of his last 10 games and given the way that Luton defend will likely find himself on the ball in tempting areas at Wembley throughout. Both the stats and the aesthetic of the game suggest that the 5/42.25 is way too big for Hamer to let fly three times in the game

Leg 3: Gyökeres 2+ fouls

Like his teammate Hamer, it would be no surprise if Viktor Gyokeres was playing in the Premier League next season even if his side don't win this as he certainly has admirers in the top flight after 38 Championship goals in the last two seasons, but the value here isn't around him hitting the back of the net again.

In all of the big Swede's last three games he has committed seven fouls in total and at least two in each game.

His physicality is a massive part of his game, and his battle with Tom Lockyer is sure to be a key theme in the game. The 1/12.00 on Gyok to commit two or more fouls again here is mightily generous about a player who regularly hits that number or beyond.

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