Leeds v Preston: Back Summerville to strike at 6/4

• Leeds rated as the top Championship club

• Preston overachieving

• Summerville AGS appeals

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Leeds v Preston
Sunday January 21, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports

Leeds 1.330/100 enjoyed one of the most comfortable afternoons of the season when running out clear and convincing 3-0 winners at Cardiff last weekend. The Whites had the game effectively wrapped up after half an hour in the Welsh capital as Patrick Bamford scrambled in a scrappy opening goal before Daniel James tapped in a second.

Cardiff goalkeeper Jak Alnwick made several saves to prevent the visitors from adding to their tally, while James struck the bar in the second half and Crysencio Summerville hit a post from his penalty. However, Leeds eventually scored a third - which was scant reflection of their vast superiority - as Georginio Rutter applied an emphatic finish to a late break.

Understandably, Leeds chief Daniel Farke was impressed with his side's efforts, saying: "For me it was our most mature performance of the season. To be so in control, from the first to the last second - we kept them totally quiet and we dominated the ball and scored three fantastic goals. We should have scored a few more but the win was never in doubt."

With Djed Spence and Luke Ayling leaving, along with injuries to Pascal Struijk and Liam Cooper, extra pressure was put on the Leeds defence but Farke was delighted with how they coped at Cardiff. Sam Byram made his return from injury to feature and there's hope that left-back Junior Firpo only picked up a slight niggle and should be available for Sunday.

Will Keane's double strike re-ignited Preston's 11.521/2 fading play-off hopes as they beat Bristol City 2-0 at Deepdale last weekend. The striker netted twice as a second half substitute after the two sides had cancelled each other out in an uneventful first half to chalk up only the Lilywhites' second success in their last six games.

Manager Ryan Lowe, who was coming under pressure from elements of the Preston support after the early-season form took a downturn, also saw his team achieve only their second clean sheet in 22 games. North End goalkeeper Freddie Woodman was rarely troubled as the hosts moved back to within striking distance of the top-six.

A triple half-time substitution sparked Preston into life with Keane, Mads Frokjaer and Emil Riis all impacting the clash off the bench with Lowe admitting, "I needed to make bold decisions". He added, "I felt we needed more power at the top end of the pitch. We changed shape and went on the front foot and lo and behold the decisions paid off."

Preston are hoping to have wing-back Brad Potts fit and available after a calf issue forced him off in the second-half of the Bristol City match. Elsewhere, Ched Evans will return to the squad after missing out with a knee complaint last weekend, whilst Liverpool have officially recalled defender Calvin Ramsay from his unsuccessful loan spell at Deepdale.

Summerville to strike

Despite sitting fourth in the Championship standings, Leeds sit top of the tree in the Expected Points (xP) metric. The Whites also lead the way in terms of Expected Goals (xG) process, shots, on-target attempts, efforts from inside the penalty area and Big Chances, which explains why Daniel Farke's side are rated so highly by the market.

In contrast, Preston occupy a bottom-six berth in all six data points with Ryan Lowe's side overachieving according to the underlying metrics. Meanwhile, on their travels, PNE have returned W0-D2-L6 when excluding the bottom-eight, accumulating just 4.32 xG, and giving up a hefty 10.93 xG, suggesting the Lilywhites may struggle to compete at Elland Road.

With the market expecting Leeds to score 2.35 goals, the [6/4] on Crysencio Summerville as an Anytime Goalscorer looks too big to dismiss. The Dutch forward is Leeds' top scorer, plundering 12 goals in 24 appearances, notching at a rate of one every 159 minutes. The 22-year-old also averages 0.43 xG per-90 and has netted in each of his last four home fixtures.

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