Hull vs Millwall: Tigers and Lions to fight out a first leg stalemate

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Hull and Millwall have contrasting play-off records

Some teams tend to thrive under pressure. Hull are one of those sides. Having almost blown their chances of finishing in the top six after taking just four points from a possible 18 in April, the Tigers delivered on the final day, beating Norwich 2-1 to pip Wrexham to the final play-off spot.

Furthermore, the men from Humberside have been promoted in each of their two previous play-off campaigns. At the end of the 2015-16 campaign, they beat Derby 3-0 in the first leg at Pride Park, and despite losing the second leg here, they were victorious at Wembley, returning to the top-flight.

Previously, they beat Watford home and away before Dean Windass' iconic Wembley goal sent the travelling Tigers supporters into a state of delirium.

On both of those occasions, they were fancied to succeed, whereas this time around, they have been priced up as the 6/17.00 outsiders for promotion, and many expect them to fall short against the Lions.

In contrast, Millwall haven't come close to the Championship play-offs recently. They do have a good record at this stage of the campaign, although all of that success has come at League One level.

Hull's home form is improving

During the first half of the season, Hull's home form was fairly inconsistent. Sergej Jakirovic's side tended to be better on their travels, winning seven of eight matches between November and February. Nevertheless, their home has steadily improved, finishing the season unbeaten in their last four here, including a 0-0 draw with champions Coventry, a game in which they restricted the Sky Blues to just a single shot on target.

Despite this, they have been priced up as 19/102.90 outsiders for this game. Having beaten Norwich on the final day, they will fancy their chances of causing an upset here and I don't believe that they should be completely dismissed.

Their xG numbers haven't made pretty reading this season, yet they have several talented individuals and their direct style does tend to cause problems for the opposition. There is plenty of room for improvement defensively, but they were the better side when these sides met at the beginning of March and there was a real sense of injustice about the final result.

They will pumped up for this, determined to exact revenge for their recent defeat to the Lions. It may not be enough to take an advantage to Bermondsey on Monday night, but they can probably stay in this tie.

Lions to show their prowess in the final third

Hull's attacking talent has never been in doubt. They have found the net in seven of their last eight here at the MKM and have averaged 1.52 goals per game across the course of the season here.

Defensively, they have looked suspect. Only Coventry and Watford have failed to notch at the MKM in 2026 and John Egan and Semi Ajayi haven't always been convincing at the heart of their defence.

They will have their work cut out on Friday night as they aim to prevent Millwall's attack from finding a way through. The Lions deservedly finished third and are unbeaten in nine consecutive away games. Although there is a doubt about the availability of Josh Coburn, they have ample talent including Femi Azeez, who notched twice on the final day and Camiel Neghli, who has undoubtedly improved over the course of the season.

Away from home, they have tended to come alive in the second half of games with nine of their last 12 goals on the road scored in the second 45.

Both meetings this season produced four goals and although first legs tend to be fairly cagey, I can't imagine either side keeping a clean sheet on Friday night.

Azeez and McBurnie likely to be key attacking outlets

Femi Azeez joins Jack Rudoni in an exclusive club. Only two Championship players have recorded 5+ goals and 5+ assists this season, with the Millwall man's final day double edging him in double figures for the campaign. He loves to use his pace to cut in from the right and frequently creates shooting opportunities for himself.

Millwall may have been disappointed with the outcome at the King Power, yet Azeez created three chances and took five shots in that game, three of which came from inside the box. His two goals came from close range at the weekend, as he routinely found space on the right hand side of the penalty area.

Oli McBurnie was Hull's hero on the final day. The former Las Palmas man is closing in on 20 goals for the season - not bad for a free transfer. He has netted four in his last five and although Jakirovic is prone to rotation, he will surely start the in-form frontman here.

The visitor's defence is notoriously robust, despite the loss of Caleb Taylor, so McBurnie's presence should keep them occupied on Friday night. At 13/53.60, he is a better price than Macauley Langstaff, who is unlikely to start for the visitors and Josh Coburn, who is unlikely to be 100% fit.

The Tigers had six shots on target against Norwich with the Scot responsible for five of those efforts. If Hull make it to Wembley, he is likely to be heavily involved once again.

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