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Leeds have won nine Championship games in a row
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Huddersfield have the 7th best xG against in 2024
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Leeds have conceded two goals in their last nine games
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Huddersfield v Leeds
Saturday, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football
This West Yorkshire Derby might pitch a relative David against a Goliath in Championship 23/24 terms, but Huddersfield actually have the historical upper hand over their counterparts here, having won 29 of their 71 league clashes compared to Leeds' 25. That, of course, has no bearing whatsoever on Saturday's game, but I found it interesting nonetheless.
The stakes can't have been higher in many of these previous ties, with Leeds looking to take their consecutive league winning run to 10 and take another step closer to the Premier League, while the hosts are making a great fist of their relegation scrap.
This will be the second game in charge for their new manager Andre Breitenreiter after an impressive 2-1 win at Watford. Huddersfield have only lost two of their last eight games, a run that has been overseen by three different managers, but those defeats did come at the hands of two quality sides in Southampton and Hull.
Daniel Farke's Leeds put in a fantastic display at Stamford Bridge in midweek and were unlucky to be dumped out of the cup by a late Conor Gallagher strike. As time has worn on, Daniel Farke may be increasingly relieved that his side didn't have to play an extra 30 minutes, with the league clearly the priority, especially with a Leeds win here a chance to equal Reading's winning streak record.
Leeds have drifted a bit in the betting over the last couple of days and have probably hit a backable price at 4/7. It's not just that they've won nine games in a row, it's the level of dominance that they consistently exert that suggests that this run could continue towards a title challenge.
They've conceded just two goals in these games, covered the -1 handicap in six and the -2 in four. Their xG ratio dominance in this time is over a goal a game and greater than Manchester City's in the Premier League.
Huddersfield's underlying numbers project well themselves, with a positive xG ratio in 2024 so far. This is mainly built on solid defensive numbers, with The Terriers ranking 7th for xG against in that time. Leeds, however, are 1st, both in the calendar year and over the course of the season, with their strong backline the foundation for their success.
Breitenreiter's first game in charge may have yielded three goals, but in truth it was a game of few chances, where Huddersfield, and Danny Ward in particular, were clinical. It's tough to see them causing Leeds too many issues, but their own defensive capabilities should stop any away win from becoming a rout.
The odds-against on a Leeds win and Under 3.5 goals looks the way to play this one, meaning we have 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 3-0 away wins onside.
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