EFL Championship Opta Stats: Saturday's best bets with 6/5 and 13/10 tips
Jack Critchley has used the Opta Stats to pick out the best Championship bets from Saturday's 3pm games...
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Farke's boys to excite fans and punters
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PNE to make it difficult for Potters
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Another high-scoring 90 minutes at NYS
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Leeds vs Sheffield Wednesday
Whites and Owls to serve up a feast of goals
The Opta Stat:
"Both teams have scored in each of Leeds United's last nine league matches at Elland Road since a 1-0 win against Southampton in February of last season - there have been 37 goals scored across those nine games (13 for, 24 against)."
Despite not being able to pick up maximum points at Elland Road, Leeds have dominated in both home matches so far. Nevertheless, the Whites look uncertain at the back and Wednesday, who have netted in both away fixtures so far, should have a chance to get on the scoresheet.
The Betfair Bet:
West Brom vs Huddersfield
Frenetic 90 minutes at the Hawthorns
The Opta Stat:
"Huddersfield have scored the fewest goals of any side in the Championship this season (2), despite only five teams attempting more shots than their 62."
Huddersfield are getting into promising positions and creating opportunities. They should be able to capitalise on West Brom's defensive frailties and contribute to an entertaining spectacle.
The Betfair Bet:
Stoke vs Preston
Potters to edge a tight affair
The Opta Stat:
"Preston North End have used the fewest players of any side in the Championship this season (15), making only one change overall to their starting XIs between matches."
Preston have been consistent so far and their settled squad will make it tough for Stoke. Nevertheless, the Potters have a little more quality in the final third and a single goal may make the difference. Alex Neil will also be keen to avoid losing to his former employers.
The Betfair Bet:
Middlesbrough vs QPR
BTTS at the Riverside
The Opta Stat:
"Each of QPR's last three league wins have come away from home - against Burnley and Stoke City in April, and against Cardiff City on MD2 this season."
As the Opta stats suggest, QPR have been far better away from home this season. Although they might not win this game, they are likely to ask questions of Boro's porous defence.
The Betfair Bet:
Rotherham vs Norwich
In-form Canaries to enjoy their visit to South Yorkshire
The Opta Stats:
"Norwich City are the top scorers in the Championship this season with 13 goals - the most they've ever scored in their opening five league matches in a campaign is 16 in 1927-28"
"Rotherham have won just one of their last 11 games in the Championship (D4 L6), while they have conceded at least two goals in each of their last four games."
The Betfair Bet:
Leicester vs Hull
Both sides to notch at the KP
The Opta Stat:
"Hull City have already won six points from losing positions in the Championship this season, the most of any side, coming from behind to beat Sheffield Wednesday and Blackburn."
Hull never know when they are beaten and their squad is looking strong. They're likely to have plenty of attacking options on the bench that can be deployed should they fall behind on Saturday afternoon.
The Betfair Bet:
Plymouth vs Blackburn
Rovers to take at least a point back to Lancashire
The Opta Stat:
"Blackburn Rovers are currently unbeaten in five away games in the Championship since a defeat in April of last season against Birmingham City (W2 D3)."
Blackburn somehow kept a clean sheet against Watford last weekend and have proven very capable away performers so far this season. It's a tricky away trip for Rovers, but they should be able to leave with something to show for their efforts.
The Betfair Bet:
Coventry vs Watford
Sky Blues to edge out goal-shy Hornets
The Opta Stats:
"Coventry have kept clean sheets in each of their last three home league games, last stringing four league shutouts together between December 2020 and January 2021"
"Watford have failed to score in each of their last three league games, last failing to find the back of the net in four in a row in January/February 2022 (4 in total in that run)"
The Betfair Bet:
Ipswich vs Cardiff
Tractor Boys to bounce back
The Opta Stat:
"Ipswich Town's run of nine consecutive home league wins came to an end last time out against Leeds United - they haven't lost consecutive home league matches since a run of three in January 2021 under Paul Lambert."
Ipswich's defeat last weekend can be classed a merely a blip. The Tractor Boys still created enough chances in that game to suggest that they will outscore the Bluebirds. The visitors haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last nine away games.
The Betfair Bet:
Read Luton v West Ham: Goals fancied on Friday night
Recommended bets
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Leeds vs Sheffield Wednesday @ 1.768/11 Exchange
Back Norwich or Draw and Over 2.5 Goals (vs Rotherham) @ 6/52.20
Jack Critchley's 2023-24 P/L
Staked: 39.00
Returned: 45.69
P/L: +6.69
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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.
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