Coventry v Middlesbrough: Back the shot kings to deliver 13/8 and 7/5 winning bets

• Second v first in a mouthwatering top-of-the-table clash

• Are Middlesbrough worth an interest at 2/13.00 to win?

• Shots numbers for each side lead to 13/82.63 and 7/52.40 bets

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Click for Coventry v Middlesbrough odds here
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Best in the Championship clash at the CBS

We have a mouthwatering clash in the Championship on Monday night as second-in-the-table Coventry host leaders Middlesbrough at the CBS arena.

Some Ipswich Town fans might disagree, but in terms of quality the Sky Blues and Boro have been the two standout teams in the second tier of English football to date, and they fully deserve to be leading the race to win promotion to the Premier League.

Middlesbrough started the season in terrific form and topped the table for the first eight matchdays, but when Coventry thrashed Sheffield Wednesday in early October it was Frank Lampard's men who went top of the table. They remained there until just last week.

In fact, when Coventry beat Middlesbrough 4-2 at the Riverside Stadium in late November they went 10 points clear of Monday's opponents, and they looked on course to dominate the Championship.

But two things have happened since that night. One is that following the questionable decision by boss Rob Edwards to quit his role to join Wolves, Middlesbrough appointed 38-year-old Swedish manager Kim Hellberg. And the other is that Coventry's away form has fallen off a cliff.

Boro haven't looked back under their new boss and have taken an impressive 31 of 42 available points since his appointment, and while Coventry's home form remains rock solid - more on that later - they have failed to win any of their last seven games on the road which has allowed Monday night's opponents to leapfrog them at the top of the table.

Home advantage gives Sky Blues the market edge

Despite their mixed recent form Coventry are the 13/102.30 favourites to take all three points, and that surely has to be down to their impeccable home form.

Lampard's men have taken more points on home soil this season than any other Championship side with a record of W11-D3-L1 from their 15 games played. But they've scored just six goals in their last six games at the CBS Arena, and their overall form in the last six weeks is just two wins in eight games with four defeats in that time.

It's not ideal form going into a game against the leaders and league's most in-form team, nor is the fact that their joint-top league scorer Brandon Thomas-Asante is still unavailable through suspension, while another key attacker - Ephron Mason-Clark - is an injury doubt having missed last week's goalless draw with Oxford.

Middlesbrough have no fresh injury worries and in fact have welcomed back a few key players of their own in recent games, most notably wing-back Callum Brittain and attacking midfielder Riley McGree, so given they're on a run of six consecutive Championship wins and brimming with confidence, it's hard to put anyone off backing the away team here at 2/13.00.

Away from home Hellberg's men have been the best in the division this season and they go into this clash on the back of winning six of their last eight road trips, including scoring four in a resounding victory at promotion-chasing Hull.

So given my thinking, do I want to back Boro to take all three points on Monday night? Not really as I just think that this is one of those games where it's impossible to rule out any outcome. We have the Championship's best home team against the league's best away team, and I have no doubt that both managers would be happy with a draw, which is available to back at 12/53.40.

So reluctantly, I'm going to pass in the Match Odds market and instead hope we get a humdinger of a game in terms of shots, but below is a graphic that shows the percentage probability in the Betfair Exchange Match Odds for all three possible outcomes.

Shot kings can produce again

Last week in-form Sheffield United hosted Middlesbrough in the live Monday 8pm slot and they tried to attack the visitors from the off. What resulted was a highly entertaining game that saw Boro produce a wave of attacks during the first half.

Hellberg's men registered a total of 15 first half shots, eight of which were on target. They slowed down in the second half as they protected their 2-0 lead which meant the Blades had plenty of attacks of their own. The match concluded with 32 shots at goal.

But that wasn't a one off for Middlesbrough. As the below table shows, in four of their last five away games Boro have registered at least 16 shots with the match ending with at least 26 shots in total. And just look at that Bristol City game. Middlesbrough registered an incredible 28 shots at goal away from home that day. Somehow they lost the game 2-0.

Middlesbrough Shots (last five away games):

So the hope is that Coventry have a similar mentality to Sheffield United last week and try to attack Middlesbrough. If they do, then we should be set for a highly entertaining end-to-end game.

There is a chance of course that Lampard might approach the match differently and try to nullify Boro's attacks, but on their day his team are more than good enough to win this game, they have a great record at the CBS Arena, and the home fans will be expecting them to attack and go for the win.

And looking at their shots numbers below, Coventry games on home soil regularly end with a high shots count. Every one of their last eight games in front of their own fans has resulted in at least 27 shots being registered with the Sky Blues themselves averaging nearly 20 shots per game.

Coventry Shots (last eight home games):

So I'm going to keep my bets simple and hope that Coventry and Middlesbrough both play to their strengths, which is to attack, go at each other's throats and produce an entertaining affair.

As mentioned above, Boro have registered at least 16 shots in four of their last five away games and they averaged just over 18 shots per game in that period. On that basis, in what I'm expecting to be an end-to-end clash, I believe the 13/82.63 about Middlesbrough having at least 16 shots is a great price.

In addition, it's impossible to ignore Coventry's shots numbers on home soil. They average nearly 20 shots per game at the CBS Arena and they're odds-on at 8/111.73 to have at least 16 shots in this match. In anticipation that Lampard's men contribute their fair share of shots also, then backing the game to have at least 32 shots at 11/82.38 is also worth backing.

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