Southampton vs Ipswich: Points shared to set up a pulsating final day

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Tuesday, 28th April, 19:45
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Tired Saints to freshen up the XI

Southampton came exceedingly close to taking their FA Cup semi-final tie with Manchester City to extra time at the weekend, but they weren't able to prevent the Premier League champions from netting a late winner. It was a blow for Tonda Eckert's men, but it isn't doesn't signal the end of their season. Far from it.

Saints have guaranteed their spot in the play-offs, and although their 2-2 draw with Bristol City in midweek has gone some way to extinguishing their automatic promotion hopes, a win on Tuesday night would put them back into contention ahead of a frantic final day.

Eckert must pick up his players and ensure that there isn't too much fatigue ahead of this midweek game. Cameron Archer and Kuryu Matsuki featured for less than 15 minutes on Saturday and may come back into the XI. Cyle Larin and Shea Charles were also used from the bench, and both may be given the nod.

Ryan Manning, who was banned for the FA Cup game, will almost certainly be reinstated.

Many teams would struggle to make changes and maintain the quality of the XI, yet Southampton's squad is both deep and talented. It has allowed them to successfully juggle commitments during the second half of the season.

Tractor Boys on the brink of Premier League Return

West Brom's points deduction changed the dynamic of the match at the weekend. It meant that the in-form Baggies only needed a point to ensure their safety, and they approached the game accordingly. They were the better side throughout the 90 minutes and although the visitors did have the ball in the back of the net, Cedric Kipre was adjudged to have strayed offside.

Ipswich have seemingly struggled with consistency this season, yet they are just one victory away from securing automatic promotion alongside Coventry.

Away from home, they have failed to catch the eye and notwithstanding the occasional masterclass, they are hard to back with any conviction on their travels. Although their away record of W9-D6-L7 is decent enough (identical to the Saints' away record), Millwall, Hull, Wrexham, Norwich, Middlesbrough and Coventry have all picked up more points on the road this campaign.

Nevertheless, Kieran McKenna's side is always well-organised, and they have plenty of Championship experience in their ranks. The Northern Irishman has been prone to rotating this season, unable to find a way to shoehorn all of his best players into the same line-up.

Saints can extend unbeaten run

It's been 17 games since Southampton lost a Championship game. They're unbeaten in nine here at St.Marys and have scored 2+ in five of their last six here. Although they've been able to blow away lesser opposition with their strength-in-depth, their matches here against top-six sides have tended to lean towards low-scoring, close encounters.

They held Coventry, Millwall and Middlesbrough (1-1, 0-0 and 1-1) and only just edged past Wrexham, although that was all the way back in August. They were edged out by Hull and narrowly scraped past Norwich. Furthermore, their home matches average just 2.41 goals per game, compared to 3.5 goals per game on their travels.

There is plenty at stake here, and this is a battle between two excellent teams. It is likely to be close, and the deadlock may not be broken in the first 45 minutes, particularly if the Saints are feeling a little leggy.

Larin likely to deputise for Stewart...and he can score

Tonda Eckert has the luxury of options. The German coach has inherited a talented squad which can be rotated when required. He has also been able to get a run of games out of Ross Stewart, something that many other managers have failed to benefit from.

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The Scot's injury record simply must be taken into account, and although he only played 19 minutes vs Bristol City last week, he started against Manchester City at the weekend, and it feels unlikely that he would be sent out again here.

Cyle Larin was given a full 90 against the Robins, but was amongst the subs at the weekend. The Canadian, who turned 31 earlier this month, has netted eight times since joining the club, with five of those coming here at St. Marys. If he gets the nod to lead the line, he may be the man to make the difference. All 18 of his shots so far have come from inside the box, so he knows the right positions to take up, and the hosts will be hoping that he can keep a cool head in such an important encounter.

Game to set up fascinating Championship final day

A draw would leave Ipswich needing to beat QPR on the final day of the season. It's not an ideal situation for the Tractor Boys, although they will be heavily favoured against a team that has nothing to play for. It would raise the possibility of Southampton potentially leapfrogging Middlesbrough on the final weekend to secure fourth spot.

Neither side are likely to play for the draw here, as they will want to put themselves in the driving seat ahead of the last set of games, yet, these two teams are very closely matched on the stats.

Across the season, expected xG is 74.8 to 74.3 in favour of Ipswich. Southampton averages 1.80 goals per game, compared to Ipswich's 1.70. The Saints are averaging 5.40 shots on target per game, ahead of the 5.0 for the visitors. The hosts have missed 82 big chances this campaign, one more than Kieran McKenna's side. These two sides lead the way in this field, with promoted Coventry currently in third on 73.

Defensively, Ipswich have been the better of the two sides, yet some of those stats are skewed towards the start of the season, during Will Still's unsuccessful stint on the South Coast. There isn't much to separate the pair, and this may be the case after 90 minutes on Tuesday night.

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