Championship Opta Stats: Ten bets for Saturday afternoon's fixtures

Jack Critchley
Published on 23 Nov 2023 at 10:38
5:00 min read

Southampton boss Russell Martin — Russell Martin will be hoping to extend his side's unbeaten run

Jack Critchley has used the latest Opta Stats to pick out the ten best bets from Saturday's Championship fixture list...

Saints to ease past impotent Terriers
Leaders to labour at the KP
Boro to continue their recent dominance
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Huddersfield vs Southampton

Saints to extend their impressive run

The Opta Stat:

"Since Darren Moore's first game in charge of Huddersfield in September, only Sheffield Wednesday (2) and QPR (4) have scored fewer Championship goals than the Terriers (6). In their 1-0 defeat to Hull, they managed just two shots and none after half-time"

Huddersfield are struggling for firepower and their xG across the last four matches is extremely disappointing. The Terriers are lacking quality in the final third and they could struggle to find a way past the Southampton defence.

The Saints have won every single away match against bottom-half opposition and are unbeaten since September 23rd. With just seven goals conceded across their last eight matches, they should be able to collect all three points on Saturday afternoon

The Betfair Bet:

Back Southampton to Win and Over 1.5 Goals at 1/12.00

Millwall vs Coventry

Another entertaining fixture at the Den

The Opta Stat:

"Coventry City have lost their last three away league matches, last enduring a longer losing away run between December 2022 and February 2023 (four in a row)"

Joe Edwards got off to the best possible start with a thumping victory at Hillsborough. This looks tougher, although the former youth coach will fancy his chances of securing consecutive victories. The Lions created multiple chances in that contest and are likely to ask questions of Coventry's defence.

The Sky Blues have hugely underwhelmed so far, yet their xG numbers are far from disappointing. They are creating chances, but they are struggling to keep the opposition off the scoresheet too.

The Betfair Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals in Millwall vs Coventry at 5/42.25

Swansea vs Hull

Tigers to snatch at least a point

The Opta Stat:

"Since Liam Rosenior's first Championship game in charge of Hull City in November last year, only West Brom (19) have more Championship clean sheets than Hull (18, excludes play-offs)"

Swansea have improved under Michael Duff, however, their home form remains patchy. Despite a fairly tough run of fixtures, they have conceded plenty of chances across their last three games and Hull will be looking to take advantage.

Hull don't lose many games with only home specialists WBA alongside high-flying Ipswich and Southampton having claimed maximum points against the Tigers since the opening day of the campaign.

The Betfair Bet:

Back Hull Draw No Bet at 19/201.95

Leicester vs Watford

In-form Hornets to frustrate the Foxes

The Opta Stat:

"After winning 13 of their first 14 Championship games this season (L1), Leicester City have since lost their last two. Indeed, the Foxes haven't lost three in a row at this level since April 2013"

Although they are still firmly in control at the top of the table, Leicester went into the international break having succumbed to consecutive Championship defeats. The Foxes are likely to get back to winning ways soon enough, yet this isn't the easiest fixture in which to get back on track.

Watford have put together a six-match unbeaten run and they have conceded just twice during that sequence. The Hornets are increasingly tough to beat and difficult to score against. They won't make this easy.

The Betfair Bet:

Back Watford to Win or Draw and Under 2.5 Goals at 13/53.60

Preston vs Cardiff

BTTS at Deepdale

The Opta Stat:

"Despite leading 2-1 at half-time, Cardiff City lost their last Championship game 3-2 against Norwich City. The Bluebirds have dropped 10 points from winning positions this season, with only Swansea (14) and Coventry (12) dropping more"

PNE games have been hugely entertaining in recent weeks and this has been in sharp contrast to their early-season approach. It's now 12 games since their last clean sheet, however, they are still firing on all cylinders going forward.

Cardiff's form has been a little inconsistent and they have been far weaker on the road this season. They conceded 16 shots to Norwich prior to the international break and may struggle to keep the hosts off the scoresheet.

The Betfair Bet:

Back BTTS in Preston vs Cardiff at 10/111.91

Birmingham vs Sheffield Wednesday

Rooney to clinch first home victory

The Opta Stat:

"Sheffield Wednesday have only scored seven Championship goals this season, the lowest total by a side at this level after 16 games of a season since Doncaster Rovers in 2008-09 (also 7). In the history of the second tier, only Coventry City in 1919-20 (4) have ever had fewer goals in their first 16 league matches"

Wayne Rooney is still waiting for his first success as Birmingham boss. The Blues got off to a slow start under the former Derby coach, however, they have shown signs of life in recent weeks. They looked decent going forward against Sunderland and gave high-flying Ipswich plenty to think about a fortnight ago.

Sheffield Wednesday have failed to kick on from their 2-0 victory over Rotherham. Danny Ruhl's side have been competitive, but they lack quality in the final third and have failed to score in each of their last two outings.

The Betfair Bet:

Back Birmingham to beat Sheffield Wednesday at 1/12.00

Bristol City vs Middlesbrough

Low-margin clash at Ashton Gate

The Opta Stat:

"Middlesbrough have won seven of their last nine league games (D1 L1). Since the start of this run (September 23rd), they have won the most points in the Championship (22)"

Liam Manning is still finding his feet at Ashton Gate and he officially began his tenure with a 0-0 draw against QPR. At Oxford, Manning began life by tightening things up and playing out a series a cagey games. The Robins' home matches have been tight this season with just two of their eight games here featuring more than two goals.

Middlesbrough have been excellent throughout October and November and they went into the break off the back of a 1-0 victory over leaders Leicester. The Teessiders have kept four clean sheets across their last seven matches and they have given away very few chances lately.

The Betfair Bet:

Back Middlesbrough to Win or Draw and Under 2.5 Goals at 13/102.30

Plymouth vs Southampton

Another entertaining 90 minutes in Devon

The Opta Stat:

"Only Ipswich Town (25) have scored more home Championship goals this season than Plymouth Argyle (20). The Pilgrims have scored three or more goals in five of their eight games at Home Park in 2023-24, including in their 3-3 draw with Middlesbrough last time on home soil"

Plymouth can be regarded as the division's entertainers this season. The Green Army have witnessed some terrific matches and they've also seen their side scored exactly three goals in each of their last two outings here.

Sunderland have produced an xG of 4.2 across their last two fixtures and they rarely struggled to carve out opportunities. The Black Cats are a young and attack-minded side who should be able to contribute to a highly-watchable contest.

The Betfair Bet:

Back Over 3.5 Goals in Plymouth vs Sunderland at 5/42.25

Stoke vs Blackburn

Rovers to end Stoke's run of clean sheets

The Opta Stat:

"Blackburn have won their last three away Championship matches. Rovers haven't won four in a row on the road within the top-two tiers of English football since April 2001 under Graeme Souness"

Stoke have been very impressive in recent and their ability to control games have enabled them to collect 11 points from a possible 15. Alex Neil's side could find this tough against a side who have excelled on the road recently.

Blackburn have suffered a few injuries lately with Joe Rankin-Costello joining Sam Gallagher, Ryan Hedges and Hayden Carter on the sidelines. Nevertheless, we expect the visitors to test Stoke's back-line.

The Betfair Bet:

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 8/111.73

Norwich vs QPR

New-look QPR to battle throughout 90 minutes

The Opta Stat:

"Under new manager Martí Cifuentes, QPR are averaging 371 successful passes per Championship game. Under former manager Gareth Ainsworth, the Hoops were only averaging 234 per game this season"

QPR have managed to keep hold of the ball a lot more effectively since the chance of management and they've taken a point in each of those contests. They have conceded an xGA of 1.1 across their last two matches and won't be giving away much here.

Norwich got back to winning ways prior to the international break with David Wagner giving himself a much-needed reprieve. The Canaries haven't been completely convincing this season and they could struggle to find a way through.

The Betfair Bet:

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 19/201.95

Recommended bets

Back Southampton to Win and Over 1.5 Goals @ 1/12.00

Back Watford to Win or Draw (vs Leicester) and Under 2.5 Goals @ 13/53.60

Back Middlesbrough to Win or Draw (vs Bristol C) and Under 2.5 Goals @ 13/102.30

Jack Critchley's 2023-24 P/L

Staked: 154.00

Returned: 140.89

P/L: -13.11

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