EFL Championship Opta Stats: Ten best bets for Saturday afternoon
Jack Critchley has crunched the numbers and used the Opta Stats to select a best bet in each of Saturday's 10 Championship fixtures...
-
Hornets to triump in West Yorkshire
-
Entertaining game at the Den
-
Tractor Boys to inflict more misery on Rooney
-
Read about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout offer here
Huddersfield v Watford
Another slip-up for the Terriers
The Opta Stat:
"Watford are unbeaten in their last four league games (W2 D2), and are looking to win consecutive away league matches for the first time since November 2022"
Watford have recently put an end to their miserable away form and are unbeaten in their last two on the road. Valerien Ismael has been more relaxed in his recent media appearances and he seems to have struck upon the right balance.
Huddersfield have conceded four times in each of their last two matches and with Darren Moore struggling to get a tune out of his side, this is far from the ideal fixture. Their xG numbers have also shown a worrying decline in recent weeks.
The Betfair Bet:
Swansea v Sunderland
Black Cats to come away with at least a point
The Opta Stat:
"Swansea have lost three of their last five home league games, including each of the previous two; they last lost three league games on the bounce on home soil in the Premier League in May 2018, while last doing so outside the top-flight in April 2004"
Michael Duff should be credited for turning around Swansea's fortunes. Although not every fan is convinced by the former Barnsley boss, he has managed to steer his side into the relative safety of mid-table. Sunderland have lost each of their last two away games, yet their overall form on the road is impressive.
The Black Cats played brilliantly against Leicester despite suffering a 1-0 defeat and they were back to winning ways last weekend. This is likely to be a tight game which could be decided by a moment of magic from one of Sunderland's wide players.
The Betfair Bet:
Plymouth v Middlesbrough
End-to-end contest at Home Park
The Opta Stat:
"12 of Plymouth's 15 points in the Championship this season have come at home (80% - W4 L3), and they could record successive home clean sheets in the second tier for the first time since October 2008 (run of three)"
Plymouth have been exceptional at home this season and they also put in a decent display at Portman Road last weekend. The Green Army will create a wall of noise and there should be a terrific atmosphere at Home Park.
Middlesbrough were in EFL Cup action in midweek at nearby Exeter and they will be looking to bounce back from their recent defeat to Stoke. Hayden Hackney's return will help their cause. However, they still look vulnerable at the back and the Pilgrims should have enough firepower from wide areas to hurt them.
The Betfair Bet:
Millwall v Southampton
Saints to edge out the Lions in absorbing contest
The Opta Stat:
"Southampton are unbeaten in their last six league games (W4 D2), the Saints last enjoyed a longer run in the league in November 2020 as a Premier League side (7 games - W5 D2)"
Millwall have picked up just a solitary victory since September 20 and have struggled in front of their own fans recently. Nevertheless, the managerless Lions have scored six times across their last four home games and have looked reasonably good going forward.
Southampton raced into a lead against Birmingham last weekend and Russell Martin's side are now six games unbeaten. Away from home, their matches have been relatively high-scoring with only one of their games on the road featuring fewer than three goals.
The Betfair Bet:
Bristol City v Sheffield Wednesday
Owls to edge out the Robins
The Opta Stat:
"Bristol City have lost, and failed to score, in each of their last two league games; they last went three league matches without a goal in April 2021"
Bristol City have lost five of their last seven matches and with Nigel Pearson having left the club, Robins' fans will be hoping that a change of manager can lift the mood around Ashton Gate. Danny Rohl picked up his first victory as Owls boss and his squad will take huge confidence from their 2-0 success over Rotherham.
Admittedly, they were helped by Rotherham's inspid display and this is likely to be slightly tougher. Nevertheless, they should be able to take at least a point back to South Yorkshire.
The Betfair Bet:
Preston v Coventry
BTTS at Deepdale
The Opta Stat:
"Preston have conceded in each of their last nine league games (18 in total), it's their longest such run in the league since an 11-game stretch between November 2021/January 2022"
Preston's performances have dipped recently and they are searching for their first victory since September 19. Ryan Lowe's side are struggling at the back but they find the net at Deepdale. BTTS has landed in six of their first seven matches here.
Coventry drew yet another blank on Monday night and Mark Robins' side must find a way to convert their chances. The Sky Blues have failed to score in each of their last three, yet they've outshot their opponents in every single one of those fixtures. Surely, they'll notch here.
The Betfair Bet:
Birmingham vs Ipswich
Rooney's winless sequence to continue
The Opta Stat:
"Ipswich are unbeaten in their last nine league games (W8 D1), winning each of the last four - the last newly promoted side in the Championship to win five successive games was Brentford in November 2014"
Birmingham's poor start under Wayne Rooney continued last weekend as they slipped to a third consecutive defeat. Although they weren't awful against Southampton, they failed to create many meaningful chances and this is a tricky-looking assignment for the Blues.
Ipswich made 11 changes for their EFL Cup defeat to Fulham on Wednesday. The Tractor Boys have conceded just two goals on their travels so far and create ample chances per 90 minutes.
The Betfair Bet:
Stoke v Cardiff
Low-scoring encounter in the Potteries
The Opta Stat:
"Five of Cardiff's seven league wins this season have seen them keep a clean sheet, including each of the last two, only Leicester and Ipswich (both 6) have more such wins in the Championship in 2023-24"
Stoke have hit an impressive run of form and although they still aren't firing on all cylinders going forward, they've significantly improved defensively.
Cardiff don't concede many goals and with just four goals shipped in their last seven, they will be typically tough to beat. Both sides are playing well and this is likely to be tight.
The Betfair Bet:
West Brom v Hull
WBA to edge out Hull in a tight contest
The Opta Stat:
"West Brom are unbeaten in their last four league games at the Hawthorns (W2 D2), keeping a clean sheet on every occasion - since Carlos Corberan's first home league game in charge of the Baggies on 29th October 2022, they've kept more home clean sheets than any other Championship side (14)"
WBA have lost just a single game this season at Hawthorns and they have kept clean sheets in each of their last four. The Baggies aren't particularly high-scorers, but they have a tendency to manage games under Carlos Corberan and they rarely concede opportunities here.
Hull have kept back-to-back clean sheets in the Championship and can be tricky opponents but this is an exceptionally tough place to go.
The Betfair Bet:
Rotherham v QPR
Strugglers to share the spoils
The Opta Stat:
"This fixture sees the two sides with the lowest amounts of possession in Championship games this season (Rotherham 34.7% - QPR 37.7%), while the Millers have had the fewest 10+ open play passing sequences in the competition this term (20), with QPR registering the fourth-fewest with 54"
This is unlikely to be a classic. Matt Taylor will be looking for a response from his side having watched them tamely fold in the South Yorkshire derby on Sunday afternoon.
QPR have a new man in charge and will be looking to Marti Cifuentes to galvanise their fortunes. Jimmy Dunne's return from suspension does give the new manager a few more options at the back and he'll be looking to get more out of his creative players.
The Betfair Bet:
Watch Football...Only Bettor
Recommended bets
Back Watford to beat Huddersfield @ 13/102.30
Back Southampton to Win or Draw and Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/42.50
Jack Critchley's 2023-24 P/L
Staked: 134
Returned: 118.71
P/L: -15.29
New Customers can get £50 in free bets!
Available to new customers only. Place a £10 bet on the Betfair Sportsbook and you will receive £50 in free bets to use on Bet Builders and Accas! Opt-in here and T&cs apply.
Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.
Discover the latest articles
Upcoming Premier League Fixtures
No upcoming matches to display.
Most Read Stories
-
Football Tips & Predictions
Thursday's International Football Tips: Back 21/10 France and a win for Sweden
-
Football Tips & Predictions
Golden Boot Betting Guide: Who will win at the 2026 World Cup
-
Football Tips & Predictions
World Cup Tips: Full team-by-team guide and bets bets from Mark O'Haire
-
Football Tips & Predictions
Liverpool Manager: Andoni Iraola in line for Anfield job after shock Arne Slot sacking
-
Football Tips & Predictions
Champions League Final Tips: Kvara backed plus 12/1 Budapest Bet Builder