Bristol City v Cardiff City: Conway could be the match winner in Severnside Derby

Pearson's City better than results suggest

On paper it's been an underwhelming start for Bristol City, having finally picked up their first win of the season in midweek at home to Luton Town.

This doesn't necessarily tell the whole story though, having been ahead in all of their other three games but only picking up one point.

They rank 2nd for xG from open play (4.76), and the four open play goals that they've conceded have come from just 2.27 xG against.

There have to be some concerns about their defending from set-pieces, the 2.52 xG against the worst in the league so far and a long way clear of Huddersfield next on 1.75, but thankfully for Nigel Pearson the opponents here have only fashioned four shots from dead-ball situations, the fewest in the Championship.

Miserly Cardiff will set up to frustrate

Despite being a striker in his playing days, Steve Morison's blueprint for his Cardiff City side looks to be built on a solid defensive unit.

Looking at the early xG data again, Cardiff have conceded the lowesr xG in the Championship so far this season (1.33) despite having played two promotion favourites in Norwich and WBA.

As such, their league best defensive record of one goal conceded and three clean sheets looks sustainable rather than an anomolous run destined to come to a grizzly end.

Their home performances have been better than away, the strongest of which was the dominant 1-0 win against Birmingham, but this game has something of irresistible force vs immovable object about it given Bristol City's attacking strength and Cardiff's solidity.

City looking to make it three in Severnside derby

Bristol City have won their last two league matches against Cardiff, last winning three in a row between December 2001 and December 2007, a run of four wins.

Their opponents, however, here boast a phenomenal record on Sundays, having lost just one of their last eight league games (W5 D2).

One quirk of this fixture is that five of the last six league meetings between Bristol City and Cardiff City have been won by the away side, although the home side boast a great recent record at Ashton Gate, losing just one of their last six as hosts in the league.

Youngster Conway to continue bright start

Tommy Conway has burst onto the scene this season, scoring three goals in 270 mins in league and cup. This is no fluke either, averaging 0.74 xG per 90 mins in the league and playing as Bristol City's main goal threat.

In the 1-1 draw with Wigan he hit the post, and two of his three goals this season have been close range tap-ins, exactly what to look for when finding value on a goalscorer.

Conway's emergence has seen Andi Weimann drop a bit deeper into a no.10 role, so back him to score here at 11/4, which is too big about a player who the market might not be quite alive to yet.

Given this is likely to be a low-scoring affair, you can boost these odds with a Betfair Bet Builder by backing Conway to score first and under 2.5 goals @ 15.88.