Birmingham v QPR: Rangers can edge tight Friday tussle

• Birmingham have scored 2+ goals just four times
• QPR top of the league with five wins from six
• Blues have seen 11/16 (71%) Under 2.5 winners

Birmingham denied at Blackburn

Birmingham boss John Eustace insisted he was proud of his Blues players despite going down 2-1 at Blackburn last weekend. The Second City had 16 shots to Rovers' five, and created so many opportunities home goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski was named Man of the Match, however, Scott Hogan's late strike was all the visitors could muster at Ewood Park.

Tahith Chong hit the post early on for Blues, although soon after Blackburn scored with their first two shots on-target - the second arriving following some negligent Birmingham defending. Hogan and Juninho Bacuna had excellent second-half chances to reduce the deficit but were denied by Kaminski before Hogan finally found the back of the net.

Speaking post-match, Eustace said: "We were excellent - lots of good chances. We controlled the game fairly well without the ball. The manner of the way we conceded the goals was disappointing. We just switched off and weren't at the races defensively. We need to be more clinical when we get into good areas, but I'm delighted with the boys' efforts."

George Friend could be back in contention after coming through an U21 fixture on Monday, whilst Lukas Jutkiewicz is hoping for a recall after impressing in the same encounter. Przemyslaw Placheta, Marc Roberts, Gary Gardner and Nico Gordon all remain unavailable.

QPR hold off Wigan to stay top

Championship league-leaders QPR made it five wins from six last weekend when surviving plenty of second-half pressure from Wigan to win 2-1 in front of a lively Loftus Road crowd. Buoyed by boss Mick Beale's decision to stay put and reject an approach from managerless Premier League side Wolves, Rangers charged out of the traps.

Lyndon Dikes and Ilias Chair had already tested Latics goalkeeper Ben Amos, before Sam Field headed in Stefan Johansen's corner at the back post to reward the R's for their dominant start. Wigan levelled against the run of play, but Leon Balogun powered a header home from another Johansen corner to put QPR back into the ascendency.

Johansen limped off shortly before half-time and Rangers were made to work hard for the points after the interval. And Beale was delighted to saviour the success after a tiring week. He said, "After a long week, I said to the staff: 'Let's just get the win and move on'. I was just delighted to get the win and the character the players showed. It's been a difficult week."

Star man Chris Willock is on course to return for Friday's game at St Andrew's after resuming full training this week. Meanwhile, Tyler Roberts might also be available for the Super Hoops, who've also seen Taylor Richards return to the fold in recent weeks.

Market makes Blues slight favourites

Birmingham were beaten in both of last season's Championship meetings with QPR and the Blues haven't fared particularly well when taking on Rangers over the past decade or so. City have managed only three victories in 17 recent head-to-head encounters (W3-D4-L10), a record that includes five defeats when welcoming the R's to St Andrew's (W2-D1-L5).

Birmingham 2.608/5 have made a solid start to John Eustace's reign, sitting only three points shy of the top-10 (W5-D5-L6). Blues have W1-D4-L2 when taking on current top-half teams with goalscoring proving City's chief concern; only twice have the hosts managed to score twice or more this term and underlying metrics suggest Blues are overperforming.

QPR 2.982/1 are the surprise second-tier table-toppers (W9-D3-L4) with Rangers boasting an excellent W9-D3-L2 return against sides outside of the top-four. However, the Super Hoops do appear to be overachieving; Expected Points (xP) ratings place the Londoners in 12^th with the visitors losing the Expected Goals (xG) battle in half of their 16 outings thus far.

Rangers can edge tight tussle

Only Preston's (1.47) fixtures are featuring are featuring fewer goals per-game than Birmingham's (1.94) in 2021/22 - Blues have seen 11/16 (71%) matches produce Under 2.5 Goals 1.738/11 profit as at least one side has failed to score in nine of City's early season contests. Ticking 'No' in the Both Teams To Score column is a 2.001/1 shot here.

QPR's outings have proven to be much more fluid with the same 9/16 (56%) hit-rate banking for Over 2.5 Goals 2.001/1 backers, as well as Both Teams To Score 1.804/5 hunters. Even so, Expected Goals (xG) figures suggest Rangers' games have delivered more goals than expected and so the market is right to assume a tighter tussle could be on the cards.

With that in mind, it may pay to back QPR Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals at 1.855/6 quotes. Rangers are in fine form, have a fine recent head-to-head record over Birmingham and possess enough game-changers to make their mark at St Andrew's with Blues still struggling to find a clinical edge to their promising play in the final-third.