Real Madrid v RB Leipzig: Bellingham can land 5/1 Bet Builder

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Real Madrid v RB Leipzig
Wednesday March 06, 20:00
Live on Discovery+

Real's past numbers suggest tie is over

By winning the first leg in Germany 1-0 thanks to a brilliant solo goal from Brahim Díaz, the overwhelming feeling at full-time was that Leipzig had blown any chance they had of reaching the quarter-finals.

History backs that up. Real Madrid have only failed to progress from one of their last 20 two-legged ties in the Champions League knockout stages after winning the first leg. For quiz question purposes, it was Ajax who ruined that perfect sequence in 2018/2019.

The victory in Germany was Real's seventh straight win in the tournament this season so, even by their incredible Champions League standards, that's some going. An eighth win would break their previous record.

While Manchester City remain 2.8615/8 favourites to land a second successive Champions League, 14-time winners Real Madrid will surely attract plenty of interest as 5.95/1 second favourites.

Leipzig can take heart from defeat

Losing 1-0 in the home leg was probably fatal for Leipzig but at least they gave Madrid an honest test, forcing Real goalkeeper Andriy Lunin into nine saves.

The shot count of 14-15 was only narrowly in Real's favour and Leipzig had more on target as well as seven of the match's 10 corners.

But the bottom line is that the Germans have failed to score in five of their last six games at the knockout stages of the Champions League, managing just a single draw in those half-dozen contests.

Since the first-leg defeat they've won two out of three domestically, losing the other 2-1 at Bayern Munich as if to reinforce the idea that they struggle to get results against the very top teams.

Real heavy favourites

Predictably, the hosts are heavy odds-on favourites to add a second-leg victory to the first. On the exchange, Real Madrid are 1.625/8 to win, with Leipzig 5.85/1 and The Draw 4.77/2.

The two met at the Bernabeu during the group stage last season with Carlo Ancelotti's men scoring twice in the last 10 minutes to secure a 2-0 win. In a similar story to the first leg of this tie, Leipzig pushed them and missed some good chances.

As a rule, it pays to be a little wary about backing home teams at short prices in two-legged contests if they've already done the hard work by winning the away tie.

That said, I do think Real will add a second victory, so one value compromise is to back Madrid to win and Both teams to Score at 15/82.88. A scoring Draw could also appeal to some at 4/15.00.

Look to fired-up Bellingham in Bet Builder

Jude Bellingham missed the first leg with injury but he's available for this one and will go into it with some fire in his belly.

Why? Bellingham, not for the first time this season, thought he'd netted a last-gasp winner to give Real victory over Valencia at the weekend. But in hugely controversial circumstances, his 'goal' was wiped out after the referee insisted he had blown for full-time a couple of seconds before Bellingham's header hit the net.

The Englishman didn't take it well, dropping the f-bomb and being sent off.

That would have been his 21st of an incredible first season with Real and he may feel the best way to right that wrong is to grab a goal here. He's 13/102.30 anytime, the same price as Vinicius Junior, who bagged both Madrid goals in that 2-2 draw.

Bellingham has scored in four of the five Champions League matches he's played in this season - all wins - so can repeat the feat in a home victory.

I'll split stakes between two versions, one which features Bellingham scoring the first goal of the game. He's netted the opener in two of the last four matches in which he's scored.

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