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City foul count could rocket vs Bellingham, Camavinga
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20 of last 22 CL first legs have clicked for under 3.5 goals
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Back 4/1 Bet Builder involving under goals & City fouls
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Real Madrid v Manchester City
Tuesday 09 April, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports
Silva can lead Man City foul frenzy
This is a fantastic betting heat to analyse.
Not only do we get to revel in a game of highest quality, but there is also previous course form to help with our decision making.
These two European giants have played one another in each of the last two Champions League semi-finals, where Madrid staged a comeback for the ages in the 21/22 season before City gained revenge last season on their way to winning the competition outright for the first time.
And, when the going gets tough, Bernardo Silva gets going.
The Portuguese maestro comes alive in the big knockout environments in this competition - it's why Pep Guardiola decided to play Silva in every minute of City's knockout games last season where he repaid that faith with three goals and two assists in those seven matches. But he's not only vital for City with the ball, out of possession he is a pest and his supercharged performances in this competition at this stage do lead to his foul count rocketing.
Across the past 50 games in all competitions Silva only averages 0.73 fouls per 90 minutes but in his last 14 Champions League knockout ties, Silva has made 27 fouls - almost two per 90 minutes.
When there is jeopardy on the line, Silva simply loves to kick people and stop the flow of an opposition.
What's even more relevant for this encounter is that 11 of those 27 fouls have come in the four meetings with Real Madrid. The message from Guardiola must revolve around starving Madrid of the quick transitions that led to City's defence becoming exposed, hence why Silva's foul numbers spike as he's excellent on the press.
He has to be backed to make fouls in this one with 13/102.30 on the Sportsbook for him to make two or more certainly worth a look as a single and part of a Bet Builder.
I'm happy to throw in the total Man City foul count into the mix too as Madrid possess plenty of foul drawing specialists that will be marshalled tightly by the visitors who will be keen on making this a messy, low scoring game.
Jude Bellingham is the sixth most fouled player in La Liga this season, winning 3.02 fouls per 90 minutes while Eduardo Camavinga is the third most fouled, winning 3.4 fouls per 90. You also have the trickery and guile of Vinicius Jnr out wide, who has won the second most fouls in the Champions League in the last two seasons (34).
Madrid, as a team, have been fouled on average 14.1 fouls times per 90 minutes this season in La Liga. And although they'll have much less of the ball than usual against this Man City possession machine, I'm still confident due to the way City will try and stifle that that average foul count could be hit.
That makes the 10/111.91 on the Sportsbook for Man City to make 11 or more fouls a big runner.
Swim against goals tide with under 3.5 bet
Backing against goals in these Champions League first leg knockout games is quickly becoming a profitable strategy - and it's all to do with the away goals rule being scrapped.
Since that rule change was brought in for the start of the 22/23 campaign, there have been 22 first leg matches in this competition and the average goals count stands at 1.95 per game. Yes, below two goals.
Of those 22 matches, only two have seen more than 3.5 goals scored. That's a 90% strike rate for those backing under 3.5 goals in these first leg encounters.
Although the sample size is small, it's a trend that has plenty of logic attached to it so it's certainly worth following whilst the prices remain skewed towards goals. Under 3.5 goals here is 2/51.40 with the Sportsbook but even the under 2.5 looks attractive at an odds-against price of 21/202.05.
Combining Silva's foul count, Man City's foul count and that unders line brings forward a perfectly backable 4/1 Bet Builder to attack.
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