RB Leipzig v Aston Villa: Back the Germans at 5/6 to come out on top again

• Leipzig look a big price again

• Youthful German side have high ceiling

• Villa look opposable at the odds

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RB Leipzig v Aston Villa

At the prices, I want to back RB Leipzig again. Why? Sometimes I think the market struggles to price up European games because the teams don't play in the same league.

And here Leipzig are only being made very slight favourites at 6/42.50 with Aston Villa at 8/52.60. The Germans are underrated again.

If we look at the odds since the Celtic debacle, Leipzig have been 4/61.67 at home to Borussia Monchengladbach, 4/51.80 at home to Wolfsburg and 13/102.30 at home to second place Eintracht Frankfurt, whose lofty position is merited with them ranking third based on expected points.

I take on board that, based on the data, Leipzig haven't been great - they rank only 10th in the Bundesliga based on expected points - but there's huge volatility to their performances and results given their youthful side.

For example, starting with where they are most dangerous upfront, they have Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda who are 21 and 24 respectively.

Then you look at their transfer business this year and you can see the huge change in age. Out went Timo Werner (28), Angelino (27) and Emil Forsberg (33). In came Antonio Nusa (19), Arthur Vermeeren (19), Lutsharel Geertruda (24) on top of the likes of Castello Lukeba (21) and Nicolas Seiwald (23) from last summer's window where they also let Konrad Laimer (27), Christopher Nkunku (27) and Alexander Sorloth (29) go. They have the third lowest average age in the Bundesliga.

After the 5-1 hammering at home to Wolfsburg, the players rallied around manager Marco Rose and have bounced back with a 3-0 win against the aforementioned Frankfurt and 2-0 win at Holstein Kiel.

Looking at Aston Villa's closing odds away from the home in-comparison - the best and most accurate representation of a team's true or correct price - makes for interesting reading.

They were 13/53.60 at Tottenham Hotspur. Are Leipzig not at least near Spurs in terms of ability? Leipzig's 8/52.60 here, compared to their 13/53.60 there, is a big shift.

Villa were a bigger price at 2/13.00 away to Fulham. Would I back Fulham as favourites against Leipzig on neutral ground? Absolutely not. Then the clincher is that Unai Emery's men were 15/82.88 at West Ham whose manager is fighting for his job.

Away from home in the Premier League, Villa rank just 12th based on expected points and have already been beaten away at Club Brugge in the Champions League where they lost the expected goals battle 1.38 - 0.42. Leipzig should be much stronger favourites, at the very least 5/42.25.

Once you strip away home advantage, these two teams are equal in ability. I'm going to have a slightly smaller bet than usual given the unreliability around Leipzig's consistency making it harder to know their true price.

Now read Paul Higham's Dinamo Zagreb v Celtic match tipping preview here!

Column P/L 2024/25