PSV v Dortmund: Close and competitive contest forecast

Edin Terzic - Dortmund
Edin Terzic was unhappy with Dortmund's weekend performance

PSV welcome Dortmund to Eindhoven for Tuesday night's Champions League clash. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is backing BVB's hot-shot to get on the scoresheet.


PSV v Dortmund
Tuesday February 20, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

PSV 2.265/4 took a step closer to their first Eredivisie title since 2018 with a straightforward 2-0 success over Heracles on Friday night. The visitors were reduced to 10 men after only 13 minutes and veteran top goalscorer Luuk de Jong opened the scoring soon after with a trademark header; the Eindhoven outfit then turned the screw in search of a second.

Olivier Boscagli added a second for Peter Bosz's men ten minutes after the interval, as PSV put Heracles under plenty of pressure. However, the hosts were unable to add more goals to their tally as they rang the chances with Tuesday night in-mind. PSV are expecting to have Johan Bakayoko available again after sickness ruled him out of action on Friday evening.

PSV are making their fifth appearance in the Champions League knockout phase - and only their second in 17 seasons - as they attempt to reach the quarter-finals for the first time since 2007. The Dutch giants boast a 10-point advantage of the Eredivisie having dropped points just twice in 22 games, and finished second behind Arsenal in their UCL pool.

Dortmund 3.36 remain undefeated in 2024 but Die Schwarzgelben had to settle for a 1-1 draw in Wolfsburg on Saturday, with Niclas Fullkrug's early opener cancelled out in the second half. BVB had started the second period brightly, but were unable to make their dominance pay and often appeared vulnerable to the home side's incisive counter-attacks.

Terzic admitted he and his players was frustrated with the weekend effort, saying: "We're not happy with the performance or the result. We didn't manage to keep our rhythm up. We had more of the play overall, but Wolfsburg had the better chances to score. We were too passive in many phases of the game. We will need to improve for Tuesday."

Dortmund were the surprise winners of the 'group of death', finishing ahead of PSG, Milan and Newcastle. BVB have now made the knockout phase of the Champions League in five of their last six seasons, though three of their most recent four have ended in elimination. Meanwhile, the guests are 17 points shy of runaway leaders Leverkusen in the Bundesliga.

PSV may edge close encounter

This match appeared the most even tie of the Last 16, and the bookmakers have agreed with that assessment, with the two teams close to a coin-flip in the To Qualify markets. Both sides prefer to play front-foot football and pack plenty of punch in forward areas, though first leg knockout ties can be notoriously cagey with quarter-final places at stake.

Dortmund overcame Newcastle and Milan on their Champions League travels this term, though Die Schwarzgelben have suffered defeat in eight of their last nine away knockout matches. With PSV owning an unbeaten home record across all competitions at the Phillips Stadion this season, I'm happy to support PSV Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals at 1.865/6.

Back PSV and Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.865/6

Bet here

PSV have shipped only eight goals in 14 matches across the Eredivisie and Champions League here in 2023/24, a sample that includes a 1-1 draw over Arsenal, as well as battling 1-0 success over Lens here during the group-stage. Despite a couple of eye-catching continental triumphs, Dortmund have won just four of 11 away Bundesliga matches.


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Mark's 2023/24 Profit/Loss

Staked: 61 pts

Returned: 68.53 pts

P/L: +7.53 pts

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