PSG v Dortmund
Tuesday 7 May, 20:00 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports 1
It was a bouncing first leg in Germany but Dortmund take just that one-goal lead of PSG - where they've never won or indeed scored in three previous trips.
A draw, which is priced at 18/5, would do them of course, but despite that they're still 6/52.20 outsiders to make the Champions League final, with PSG 13/20 to use home advantage to help overturn the deficit.
This is the Holy Grail for PSG's Qatari owners with the closest they've come to getting that return on their huge investment being that 2020 final, while Dortmund famously win it in 1997 and last made a final in 2013.
That 2013 final was also at Wembley, like this seasons, and a repeat of Dortmund v Bayern is still possible - is that a sign perhaps?
Dortmund will surely have to break their Paris duck to get the job done - only Bayern have stopped PSG scoring in their last 38 home games in the competition.
A repeat of the 2-0 group stage win for PSG will do nicely for them, but they'll be under pressure to get ths done - and they've never actually won a two-legged Champions League semi as their 2020 final came after a one-leg semi during Covid times.
And what's more, they've actually lost all five semi-final matches they've played in bar that Covid victory, so although Luis Enrique's side are 2/51.40 to win the match history is not on their side.
They've also had a recent tendency to concede the first goal, which just won't do here, and while Jadon Sancho shone last week Kylian Mbappe was again dealt with by Dortmund - if they do that again the Germans will be in business.
Stick with in-form Sancho
Kylian Mbappe is obviously the 8/151.53 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, but as we mentioned he's not scored in open play in three games now against Dortmund this season.
Apart from a penalty he's mustered just one other shot on target in those games but could easily go off here, as he's had a hand in 32 goals in 31 home games in this competition.
Jadon Sancho was the star of the first leg and I like a couple of bets for him including the 4/61.67 on Sancho to be fouled 1+ times as PSG will certainly be watching out for him.
He'll laos lead any counter attacks with his pace and while he's not prolific in goal attempts, conditions could suit here for him to just have 1+ shot on target at 13/102.30.
We backed Achraf Hakimi in the first leg as he gave away three fouls so there's no reason not to roll with him again at 13/82.63 for 2+ fouls in Paris.
The bet has landed in Hakimi's last three Champions League games and also in all three contests with Dortmund this season, so looks a great bet again.
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