UEFA Champions League

PSG v Arsenal: 7/1 Rice can give Gunners hope

Arsenal midfielder Declan Rice
Declan Rice can make his mark in Paris

PSG gained a crucial 1-0 win at the Emirates but Arsenal can give them something to think about in Wednesday's Champions League semi-final second leg says Dave Tindall...

  • Arsenal have it all to do but their mission is clear 

  • Rice and Merino can combine in a 10/34.33 Bet Builder

  • Rice is a value punt at 7/18.00 to score anytime

  • Read on to see Paul Higham's 2/13.00 and 13/53.60 Betfair Build Up tips


Betfair Wednesday Football Superboost

Betfair's Champions League Superboost is all centered around Arsenal's main man Bukayo Saka. The Arsenal talisman has had six shots on target in his last five games.

Against PSG in Arsenal's Champions League semi-final clash on Wednesday evening Saka has been boosted to have 1+ shots on target in the game. To take advantage just click on the bet button in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.


Listen to Football...Only Bettor UCL semi-final second legs special


PSG v Arsenal
Wednesday 07 May, 20:00
Live on Discovery+

The View From Arsenal

In theory, Arsenal could win the Champions League and make this one of their greatest ever seasons.

But after losing the first leg 1-0 at home last week, they now find themselves looking at a doomsday scenario.

If the worst pans out, they end yet another campaign empty-handed while Liverpool (Premier League), Manchester City (FA Cup), Newcastle (Carabao Cup), Tottenham or Manchester United (Europa League) and Chelsea (Conference League) all bank a trophy.

The Gunners were a shade of odds-against at 21/202.05 to make the final before they lost the first leg at The Emirates. Now they're out to 7/24.50 to reach the showpiece in Munich on the final day of May.

Only two teams have ever managed to progress from a Champions League semi-final after losing the first leg at home so history is heavily against Mikel Arteta's side.

It's easy to say they took their eye off the Premier League a while ago but Arsenal go into this return leg in their joint-worst run of the season after two losses (against PSG and home to Bournemouth at the weekend) and a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace in the last three matches.

Has momentum gone at just the wrong time or do they have something up their sleeves still?

PSG weekend defeat can be dismissed

PSG have also lost their domestic focus but in very different circumstances. They've already been declared French champions and their hopes of going through the Ligue 1 campaign unbeaten were ended with a 3-1 home loss to Nice prior to the first leg.

With that aim gone and all energies channeled into finally winning this tournament for the first time in their history, Luis Enrique sent out a young team - four were born in 2006 or later - against Strasbourg at the weekend. The result? A 2-1 loss but it didn't really matter.

Ousmane Dembele suffered a minor hamstring concern in the first leg so was one of the star names to be rested. But after being spotted in training on Monday, the freescoring frontman should be ready to go.

Paris odds-against to finish job with a win

PSG have already hosted two Premier League sides in the knockout phase. They somehow contrived to lose 1-0 to Liverpool despite completely dominating the match - they had 18 shots to just two from the Reds - and came from 1-0 down to beat Aston Villa 3-1.

For Wednesday night's encounter, PSG are 11/102.11 to win the game, with Arsenal 12/53.40 and The Draw 27/103.70

Thomas Partey returns for the Gunners after being suspended for the first leg and, if making a case for Arsenal turning this around, you'd be pointing to that and Dembele perhaps not being 100%.

There's also the element of a team not knowing whether to stick or twist having won the away leg. 

Arsenal have the simpler thought process: win or it's all over.

All in all though, I'll ignore the outright market.

Arsenal pair make appeal

Declan Rice didn't manage a shot on target in the first leg but I'll keep my faith in him and back the England star to test the goalkeeper here.

Rice has seven shots on target from his 12 games in the Champions League this season and that's a far better ratio than his Premier League stats show.

That said, he netted against Bournemouth at the weekend and who can forget his two free-kicks against Real Madrid?

He's 9/52.80 to have a shot on target on Wednesday night and that's worth a go given that Arsenal must come up with something.

Mikel Merino will likely be used up front again and I'll back the stand-in striker to warm the gloves of Gianluigi Donnarumma - an outstanding performer in this year's Champions League. 

The double on both Rice and Merino having a shot on target is around 10/34.33.

I'll also back Rice to get on the scoresheet. PSG haven't been great at the back recently, conceding 10 in their last six games. It's five in the last three home games if applying that filter.

Rice has five goals in his last 14 games so has been more prolific over the last couple of months. Three of those strikes came in the Champions League.

Given his numbers, Rice is value at 7/18.00 to score anytime.

Whether it's a decisive goal or a consolation remains to be seen but if it comes early - he's 17/118.00 to score first - there will be plenty of twitching in the PSG camp as they continue the pursuit of the Champions League Holy Grail.


Now read Alan Shearer Exclusive: Arsenal can still reach the Champions League final


Recommended bets

Paul Higham's Build Up Tips:

Player to have more shots on target

I've got a really interesting Shots On Target Match Up here as I'm backing Declan Rice to test the keeper more than Achraf Hakimi at a price of 13/53.60.

The PSG right-back is favoured slightly at 21/103.10 to win this battle as he averages 0.87 shots on target per game this season against Rice's 0.58, but the Arsenal man can eclipse him here.

In the Champions League the Moroccan has a big advantage to, leading the race 13-6 in shots on target, but Arsenal will have to go into attack mode at some point in Paris, plus the return of Thomas Partey will free Rice up to roam forward more often.

He can obviously be a danger too - just ask Real Madrid - and even if the game starts to get away from the Gunners I still fancy Rice to keep plugging away and try his luck even from distance. 


Player to commit more fouls

Let's go for a straight head-to-head clash here and a Fouls Match Up Bet between Bukayo Saka and Nuno Mendes, who will renew their rivalry from last week down Arsenal's right hand side.

PSG left-back Mendes is the big 8/111.73 favourite here as you'd expect going up against the trickery of Saka, who is 2/13.00 to give away more fouls.

BUT, I'm happy to back Saka to have more fouls than Mendes here as the Portuguese defender has a pretty good record of keeping his nose clean even in these big games.

Just last week for example Mendes did not commit a single foul, while Saka was whistled twice even at home at the Emirates - while the Englishman averages more fouls per game at 1.75 to Mendes' 1.0.

They've both given away 14 fouls in the Champions League this season, but Mendes has played in six more games, and Saka also has more multiple fouls games (5-4) so put that all together with PSG holding a lead and playing at home and Saka looks to have every chance of landing this one for us.

Dave Tindall's Season P/L

Staked: 75.5pts

Returned: 58.17pts

P/L: -17.33pts

Previous:
2023/2024 P/L: -£20.79
2022/2023 P/L: +£16.79
2021/2022 P/L: +£8.69
2020/2021 P/L: +£3.06

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