Panathinaikos v Braga Tips: 4/1 cards angle for play-off tie

• Italian ref has strong card record

• Perez booked in 4 of 8 European matches

• Back 4/1 Bet Builder in UCL play-off

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Panathinaikos v Braga
Tuesday 29 August, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 2

Maybe you're expecting something from the Carabao Cup today but that's a competition that, as a props punter, I find incredibly hard to deal with.

It's bordering on impossible these days to second-guess who will play as even lowly EFL sides make numerous changes to their line-ups.

Instead, I'm heading to a competition in which the teams involved are guaranteed to play their strongest XI and those men will be busting a gut to do well, namely the Champions League.

We're at the play-off stage with second legs this week determining the final line-up for Thursday's draw.

Leg 1: Panathinaikos over 1.5 cards

This tie looks well set up for a battle royale.

Braga take a 2-1 lead to Greece where the hosts will still be confident of turning things around in front of their vociferous fans.

A competitive contest looks assured and the cards angle looks worth pursuing.

Italian referee Daniele Orsato is a significant appointment - he's a high carder, showing 4+ in 30 of his last 41 UEFA club appointments.

In addition, Pana's qualifiers have been racking up the fouls - they committed 13.6 per game across their five matches in the competition so far, picking up 15 yellow cards.

Leg 2: Braga over 1.5 cards

They've also been fouled a whopping 16.4 times per match.

Braga's stats aren't as good (although that's hardly a surprise given the numbers involved) but the state of the tie and the referee can help pull cards out of them.

I'm happy to take both teams for over 1.5 cards.

Leg 3: Ruben Perez to be shown a card

I'll also add Pana midfielder Ruben Perez for a card.

With their hosts needing to push forward, Braga will likely look to play on the break here and Perez will be the man charged with stopping such attacks.

The Spaniard owns a strong card record, receiving 10 last season for Pana, while in his days in La Liga, Perez picked up 108 cards in 261 games.

Particularly noteworthy is his record in European games - he's been carded in four of his eight starts in the UEFA competitions, including two in the current campaign.

With Perez having also described the game as one of the biggest of his career, expect him to be pumped up for this one.

The three legs put together make up a 4/15.00 shot.