Napoli v Milan: Back Rossoneri to reach the semi-finals

• Milan won 4-0 at Napoli in the league
• Key Napoli players suspended
• Osimhen can be active in attack

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Napoli v Milan
Tuesday 18 April 20:00
Live on BT Sport

Osimhen return gives Partenopei a boost

As much as Napoli's incredible success in Serie A has been a team effort, some parts of that team are more important than others. Nigerian striker Victor Osimhen has rattled in a league-high 21 goals in the Italian top flight, and his absence was keenly felt last week, as Luciano Spalletti's side lost 1-0 at San Siro in the first leg of this quarter-final.

Napoli certainly had their moments in that game. They had an effort cleared off the line with their first attack, and forced Milan keeper Mike Maignan into several outstanding stops. In Osimhen's absence, Georgian wing wizard Kvicha Kvaratskhelia tried manfully to carry the fight, but couldn't find a way through.

Kvaratskhelia has delivered 12 goals and 10 assists in Serie A, and has been involved in six Champions League goals. He has an excellent understanding with Osimhen, who is now fully fit and raring to go.

Osimhen has rattled in four UCL goals, helping his team win a tough group before disposing of Eintracht Frankfurt in the last 16 with a 5-0 aggregate win.

Napoli's form in Serie A has wobbled. They lost 4-0 at home to Milan, and at the weekend they were held to a rare 0-0 draw at home to Hellas Verona. They will still win the Scudetto though, as they are 14 points clear of second-placed Lazio with just eight games left.

The return of Osimhen is somewhat offset by the loss of defensive colossus Kim Min-Jae and midfield enforcer Andre-Frank Zambo-Anguissa because of suspension. Kim has been arguably the best defender in Serie A this season.

Milan can still save a disappointing campaign

Last season brought joy unconfined for Milan, as they ended their long wait for a Serie A title. The fact that they edged out city rivals Inter on the final day, taking their Scudetto from them in the process, made it all the sweeter. A nice mix of youth and experience had done the trick for coach Stefano Pioli.

However, Milan's title defence has crumbled under an onslaught from Napoli, and now they are struggling to secure a place in the top four. The return of their outstanding French number one Mike Maignan has been critically important, and he could be the key to their Champions League hopes.

He made a number of important interventions last week at San Siro, and in two meetings with one of Europe's most powerful attacking units, he is yet to concede a goal.

Milan had a 1-0 lead to defend in the last 16, and they did it with room to spare at Tottenham. Admittedly, Spurs were eye-wateringly bad on the night, but Pioli's men still played with composure and quality in a 0-0 draw.

Milan have some outstanding talents. Ahead of Maignan, Fikayo Tomori is established as a defensive leader, even if he does have the odd dip now and again. Brahim Diaz has come on leaps and bounds, and is regularly affecting games at this level.

Rafael Leao was rightly voted as Serie A's MVP last season, and he sparkled in that recent 4-0 win at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium. The 36-year-old centre-forward Olivier Giroud remains an outstanding focal point in attack.

Pioli has no fresh injury concerns, and he rested a host of top players in the weekend's 1-1 draw at Bologna. We can expect wholesale changes, and something very close to the XI that started the first leg.

Milan well placed to reach the final four

For all of Napoli's brilliance this season, there have been recent signs of wear and tear, and the absence of Kim and Zambo-Anguissa represents a big setback. Osimhen's return is obviously significant, but Milan and Pioli have picked up two wins against Napoli recently, even if they rode their luck second time around.

Milan are 1.84/5 to qualify, and I'm happy to take that price. We can afford them to lose by a single goal, and then hope they can find a way to progress via either extra time or penalties. Players like Rafael Leao, Brahim Diaz and rampaging left-back Theo Hernandez can do serious damage on the counter-attack, and I expect Milan to score.

Osimhen can make his mark regardless of result

Even though I believe Milan will progress (and potentially face a Milan derby in the semi-finals), I think Napoli's Osimhen will still put his imprint on this game.

The powerhouse is 10/11 on the Sportsbook to have two or more shots on target, and in Serie A this term he averages 1.83 shots on target per 90. There'll be spells where Milan are on the back foot, and I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest Osimhen will get into some good goalscoring positions.