Napoli v Liverpool: Neapolitan nightmare for Reds

Napoli v Liverpool
Wednesday 07 September, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

Kvaradona leads the way

Napoli looked set for a difficult campaign when it became clear that they were losing some key players over the summer.

Defensive behemoth Kalidou Koulibaly defected to Chelsea, hometown hero Lorenzo Insigne went to Toronto, and the club parted company with record scorer Dries Mertens.

However, the Partenopei hung onto hugely exciting striker Victor Osimhen, and 21-year-old Georgian winger Kvicha Kvaratskhelia has started the season in magnificent fashion.

He scored the winner in the 2-1 victory at Lazio at the weekend, and he already has four goals and an assist in five Serie A matches.

He has already been dubbed "Kvaradona" by Napoli fans, and club legend Diego Maradona would doubtless approve of his swashbuckling approach.

Napoli started last season brilliantly too under experienced coach Luciano Spalletti, although they couldn't last the pace and ended up third, seven points behind the champions Milan.

This term, they have collected 11 points from their first five matches, and according to Infogol data, they have the best Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against figures in the league.

Strength of schedule has to be borne in mind here (they have played newly promoted Monza and Lecce), but they held Fiorentina in Florence and beat Lazio at the Olimpico.

Osimhen didn't play a full part in training on Monday, and at time of writing was a major doubt for this game.

That would be a major blow for Napoli, and in his stead Spalletti might select a fluid front three of Kvaratskhelia, Giacomo Raspadori and Matteo Politano. Hirving Lozano is also a doubt.

No need for injury-ravaged Reds to panic

Mo Salah scored seven goals in last season's UEFA Champions League group stage for Liverpool.

In this most unusual of seasons, there will be strange twists and turns, but there's no doubt that Liverpool have made what they would dub a fehlstart in manager Jürgen Klopp's German homeland.

The Reds are already six points off top spot in the Premier League, and they are four points off the Champions League spots.

At the weekend they were denied a Merseyside derby win at Everton by a goalkeeping masterclass from England stopper Jordan Pickford.

The absence of the injured Thiago is a critically important one. He allows Liverpool to control the tempo of matches and to retain possession, cutting down the number of moments in which Liverpool's high defensive line can be exposed in transitional phases of play.

Liverpool have brought in Brazilian international Arthur, whose career has stalled after a promising start in Barcelona.

If Thiago is a bespoke piece of jaw-dropping artistry, Arthur is the flat-pack version - nowhere near as good, but can still do a job, and fulfils a role that no-one else bar Thiago in the Liverpool squad is capable of fulfilling.

Liverpool have won the xG battle in five of their six Premier League games, and their only truly poor spells in games were in the first half at Fulham and some moments of the defeat against Manchester United at Old Trafford.

Given the club's injury problems (Ibrahima Konaté, Jordan Henderson, Naby Keita and Thiago are all out, and Joel Matip has only just returned from injury), it's not as bad a body of work as it might seem.

Klopp must make a decision between starting Darwin Nuñez and Roberto Firmino at centre-forward, with Luis Diaz and Mohamed Salah likely to start out wide. Arthur could make his debut.

Reds too short for MD1 win

Liverpool won all six of their group games last season, becoming the first English side to do so, but this is possibly the toughest game this group has to offer and it comes at an awkward time for the Merseyside giants.

Liverpool haven't won any of their away games yet (drew at Fulham and Everton, lost at Manchester United), and I'm not sure I can get on board with backing them at evens here.

Napoli are full of confidence, they'll get incredible backing at the Diego Maradona and they have attacking players who can cause Liverpool all kinds of problems on the break.

I'll lay the visitors here, which means we have the home win and the draw in our portfolio.

Opta tell us that Napoli have lost just one of their last 12 group-stage games in the Champions League, and they beat Liverpool in Naples at this stage in 2018 and 2019, keeping clean sheets on both occasions.

Put new Napoli hero in your Bet Builder

Given Kvaratskhelia's excellent form, it's worth considering him when we put together a Bet Builder on the Sportsbook.

You back back the Georgian and Mohamed Salah to each have a shot on target at combined odds of 2.427/5 (Opta tell us Salah scored seven group-stage goals last term).

If you also throw in Napoli to have at least four shots on target, you get a price of 3.39/4. Liverpool have allowed three shots on target per match in the Premier League according to fbRef.com, while Napoli are averaging 5.8 shots on target per 90 in Serie A.