Milan v Napoli: Rossoneri well priced to slow Napoli juggernaut

• Milan won 4-0 at Napoli earlier this month

• Napoli star Osimhen racing to be fit

• Back Milan to avoid defeat and Leao to shine in Bet Builder

Milan v Napoli
Wednesday 12 April, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

Patchy Milan must find some consistency

Milan were worthy winners of the Scudetto last season, as they found a consistency that their city rivals Inter couldn't match in the closing months of the season.

The Rossoneri won nine and drew two of their final 11 Serie A games last term, finishing two points ahead of their cross-town foes.

How Milan coach Stefano Pioli would love to see that consistency now, with a Champions League trophy to fight for and qualification for next season's UCL on the line.

Milan won 4-0 at runaway leaders Napoli in their last away game, but then followed up that result with a frustrating goalless draw against Empoli.

The visitors had just two goal attempts and 29% possession, but they got the point they came for, as Milan had a penalty wiped out and a goal chalked off after VAR interventions.

Pioli clearly had this Champions League quarter-final in mind though, as he rested Rafael Leao and Olivier Giroud until the closing stages. It would be a surprise if both don't start on Wednesday evening.

Milan have shown wild swings in form in the league (their last 11 games have featured four wins in five defeats), and their Champions League form has been confusing too.

They were pulled apart by a limited Chelsea in the group stage (they lost home and away to the Blues), but took ten points off Slazburg and Dinamo Zagreb. In the last 16, a controlled and solid performance over two legs was enough to see off a feeble Tottenham.

Experienced Danish defender Simon Kjaer is expected to partner Fikayo Tomori at centre-back, with Pierre Kalulu injured.

Pioli has switched between a back three and a back four at times this term, but it would be surprising if he didn't deploy something similar to the 4-2-3-1 that was so successful against Napoli earlier this month.

Would Osimhen absence slow down Napoli?

Given that Napoli are sixteen points clear at the top of Serie A and that they have cut through Champions League opponents like a hot knife through butter, it would be ludicrous to suggest they are a one-man team.

However, there is no doubt that the potential absence of Nigerian powerhouse Victor Osimhen presents a serious problem for coach Luciano Spalletti.

Serie A's top scorer picked up an injury on international duty, and hasn't featured since, and at time of writing it was unclear what role he would be able to play in this game.

Osimhen has delivered 21 goals in Serie A, and a further four in the Champions League, and his partnership with Georgian winger Kvicha Kvaratskhelia (12 goals and 10 assists in Serie A) has been one of the best in the sport this season.

If Osimhen can play any role here, it will make a significant difference.

Napoli topped a group that included Liverpool, Ajax and Rangers, and they scored a staggering 20 goals in six group matches. They then blew away a decent Eintracht Frankfurt side 5-0 on aggregate in the last 16. In Serie A, the southern giants have won 24 of their 29 matches.

However, one of the five games they haven't won in the league was that recent 4-0 demolition at Milan's hands at the Diego Armando Maradona.

It was a ruthless Rossoneri display that saw the visitors go 3-0 up inside an hour, and score with half of their eight shots on target.

Other than the doubts over Osimhen, Napoli largely have a clean bill of health, and should be able to field all of their other key performers.

Milan a big price to take first-leg lead

Milan have stumbled at home recently in draws against Salernitana and Empoli, but one wonders if that was them being distracted by bigger tests.

Pioli's team has gone unbeaten in five home games, and that 4-0 win over Napoli simply cannot be ignored.

It's also worth bearing in mind that in the reverse fixture, Milan lost the game 2-1 but according to Infogol they comfortably won the xG battle and outshot their opponents by a significant margin.

I'm always a bit nervous about opposing Napoli, but there are a few ways you can do it.

You can back the hosts Draw No Bet at 2.0421/20, which sees your stake returned if the game is drawn, but I'm going to instead use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder.

We can back Milan/Draw Double Chance, Rafael Leao to have a shot on target and Over 7.5 Corners on the Sportsbook at 3.14107/50.

The Portuguese forward Leao was outstanding in Naples in that 4-0 win, scoring twice, and he is averaging 1.07 shots on target per 90 in Serie A this season (it was 1.31 last term).

In the two league meetings there were 13 corners in Milan and 14 in Naples, and both teams' games in Serie A average significantly above the eight corners we need here.