-
City have huge issues at defending counter-attacks
-
Vinicius Jnr was a constant threat in first leg
-
Back 12/1 Bet Builder involving Real to qualify
-
Read about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout offer here
Manchester City v Real Madrid
Tuesday 17 April, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports
City look vulnerable - treble bid to hit buffers?
Let's not waste any time - I think Real Madrid are a great bet here to qualify at 5/23.50 with the Betfair Sportsbook and are the value across many markets.
There is a lazy assumption that history is going to repeat itself in that Manchester City will cruise this like last season, where they were phenomenal in the second leg after drawing with Real in the Bernabeu. However, City haven't hit those levels since that semi-final last season and despite standing a fair chance of completing another treble, they are more vulnerable defensively 12 months on.
Real exploited City's vulnerabilities to counter-attacks in Spain and I'm confident that they're going to create big moments on the break once again.
Even Pep Guardiola said in his press conference after the game in Madrid that he expects Real to score at least once at the Etihad Stadium - he knows his team are so vulnerable to counter-attacks and the numbers back it up when looking at the "Fast Breaks" metrics defined by Opta.
Man City have conceded the most goals in the Premier League from fast breaks this season (7) and they've conceded the most goals from fast breaks in the Champions League this season (5). Two remarkable statistics.
It's a set of data that equates to 27 per cent of all their goals conceded in the Premier League and Champions League this season coming via fast breaks.
And now they have to face an attacking trio of Vinicuis Jnr, Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham, who probably are the highest quality counter attacking unit in European football.
Madrid have an indescribable way of staying calm under pressure and thriving in key moments in this competition and I'm very happy to back them to qualify at 5/23.50 based on that counter attacking threat.
Vinny to make City heads go all spinny
Vinicuis Jnr didn't get on the scoresheet in the first leg but it wasn't for the want of trying. He had three openings in the game that equated to an expected goals figure of 0.23, showcasing the quality of chance that dropped his way.
People are arguing that Kyle Walker being back will help Man City tame the Brazilan. It will certainly help but that is overblown slightly.
In terms of recovery pace, Walker is a beast but he has shown this season against quality opposition that he can be a little slow to react when tasked with players shifting the ball off the left onto their right foot.
There's a chance he might be regressing slightly at the top level based on fixtures against Chelsea and in Man City's eventful away win at Newcastle. Raheem Sterling found the net in both the home and away meetings whilst Anthony Gordon skipped past Walker at regular intervals for Newcastle and got on the scoresheet.
Vinicius Jnr will be Real Madrid's biggest weapon and the 11/43.75 anytime goalscorer quotes are begging to be snapped up. We're dealing with a top-class player bang in form having scored six goals in his last five starts in all competitions. He should be in his element.
Cards on the cards: City may lose heads
Combining Real to qualify and Vinicius Jnr to score anytime at 13/27.50 looks an edge to exploit with both bets overlapping one another. But I'm not stopping there on the Bet Builder, I think we can squeeze more juice out of that price by adding over 1.5 Man City cards into the mix.
Eduardo Camavinga, Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Jnr are card drawing machines.
Since the start of lasts season in La Liga, Vinicius gets a player booked every 150 minutes, seeing 29 cards shown against an opposition player. Camavinga gets someone booked every 198 minutes, drawing 17 cards since last season whilst Bellingham gets a player carded every 198 minutes after drawing 10 cards this season.
With such jeopardy in the air added to Real's counter attacking threat which could lead to cynical fouls, plus Real being fancied to qualify on my part, the City card line is also a bet for me.
So backing Real to qualify, Viniicus to score & over 1.5 cards for Man City comes out at 12/113.00 on the Bet Builder. Of course, backing those in singles is sensible too but as all three of those variables are linked it makes sense to play the bigger price.
Listen to Football...Only Bettor Champions League special