Man City v PSG: Visitors a smart bet in clash of European heavyweights

Argentina and PSG forward Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi is looking to score against Man City for the second time this season

James Eastham looks at the odds and best options ahead of this massive clash at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday night...

"The presence of their magical trio up front means PSG can win against all opponents thanks to moments of brilliance that may go against the flow of the game."

Best Bet: Lay Man City at home to Paris St-G @ 1.684/6

Man City vs Paris St-G
Wed, 20:00 GMT
Live on BT Sport 2 and BT Sport Ultimate

City's chances overstated

Before the first meeting between these sides in this season's group phase our feeling that the market underrated PSG was vindicated as Lionel Messi and co. ran out 2-0 winners at Parc des Princes on September 28.

Fast forward two months and the market prices tell a similar story ahead of this return fixture at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday night.

Man City are 1.674/6 to claim all three points, while The Draw is 4.57/2 and PSG are 5.59/2.

We know all about the virtues of Pep Guardiola's side - but do City really deserve to be such short odds against a PSG side that's likely to contain Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar at kick-off?

Smart ways to back PSG

City's 1.674/6 is another way of saying City are a 60 per cent shot to win. Does that really make any sense given the peerless firepower Paris boast at the other end of the pitch? City may dominate for long spells, outplay Paris, even - but that doesn't mean they'll win, or that the odds on a home victory are justifiable.

PSG's record in all competitions this season is W14-D3-L2. Away from home they're W5-D3-L1. From four Champions League games so far, they're W2-D2-L0.

Some of the criticism about the team's failure to dominate games since Mauricio Pochettino was appointed at the start of the year is fair. PSG simply don't control games the way that City do at their best.

Yet that's almost a separate issue to the likely outcome of PSG's games given they have arguably the world's top three attackers in their line-up.

The presence of the magical trio up front means the team from the French capital can win against all opponents thanks to moments of brilliance that may go against the flow of the game.

It would be risky to back PSG to win. City have put 10 goals past two visitors to the Etihad Stadium in this tournament this season: they thrashed Red Bull Leipzig 6-3, then defeated Club Brugge 4-1.

Yet the big odds on a PSG win throw up good opportunities to support the French visitors in other ways.

You can, for example, lay City at an odds-on price. This move would earn you a profit whether PSG win or draw.

Alternatively, you can back PSG +0.5 & +1.0 on the Asian Handicap. With this selection, you'll make a profit if PSG win or draw and lose only half your stakes if the visitors lose by one goal. For a full guide to Asian Handicap betting, click here.

Mbappe in imperious form

In the scoring markets, Mbappe's a predictably short price to find the net. The France striker is 3.211/5 to hit the target at some point in the match. Given the form the 22-year-old is in, however, it would be smart to consider him.

Mbappe has scored nine goals in his last eight starts: three in four for PSG in Ligue 1, one in two in the Champions League and five goals in two France appearances in the most recent international break.

He's clearly loving playing alongside Messi and the pair have struck up a fine understanding. Mbappe is likely to play as the central striker for PSG and it will take an almighty effort from City's defenders to stop him.

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James’ 2021-22 Champs League P/L

Staked: 5pts
Returned: +6.34pts
P/L: +1.34pts

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