Lazio v Bayern Munich: Back Kane to conquer Rome even if Bayern don't win

• Bayern reeling after Leverkusen thrashing

• Kane has scored 28 goals across Bundesliga and UCL

• Lazio far more physical than Bayern

Lazio v Bayern
Wednesday 14 February, 20:00
Live on Discovery+ and TNT Sports

Lazio have exceeded Sarri's expectations

Whether it was a deliberate ploy or a genuine feeling, Lazio boss Maurizio Sarri has regularly played down his team's chances in the Champions League, suggesting the Biancocelesti weren't at a level where they could truly compete with the big hitters in Europe.

The former Chelsea boss described the Roman side reaching the last 16 as a miracle, and criticised the media for stoking up unrealistic expectations.

Lazio qualified for the first knockout round as group runners-up behind Atletico Madrid. The Italians only lost two of their six group games, but although they have done well in Europe, they have struggled domestically. The loss of exceptional midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to Saudi Arabia has been keenly felt, and living Lazio legend Ciro Immobile has only managed six Serie A goals.

That said, the capital club have been strong at the Stadio Olimpico. They have only lost one of their last 15 competitive matches at home, and that was against Serie A leaders Inter. In the Champions League, they drew 1-1 with Atletico Madrid (goalkeeper Ivan Provedel scored a remarkable late leveller), and they beat both Feyenoord and Celtic, keeping clean sheets in both games.

Bayern under fire after BayArena humiliation

One of the features of Bayern Munich's success in the 21st century is how they have been able to raise their game in matches against title rivals. Going into Saturday's trip to face Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern had gone 21 games unbeaten in clashes between the top two, a run that went back nine years.

However, the trip to the Rhineland was a total disaster from start to finish. Bayern coach Thomas Tuchel opted for an unfamiliar back three, with recent signing Sacha Boey asked to play left wing-back instead of his usual position on the right. Eric Dier was surprisingly selected ahead of Matthijs de Ligt, while teenage midfielder Aleksandar Pavlovic had to play in central midfield, with Joshua Kimmich struggling with a shoulder injury.

The combination simply didn't work. Bayern pressed well at times but they were caught out horribly for Leverkusen's early opener (scored by on-loan Bayern defender Josip Stanisic, an indictment of Bayern's muddled transfer policy).

Pavlovic and the returning Min-Jae Kim were caught ball-watching for Alex Grimaldo's goal to make it 2-0, and the self-indulgent decision of experienced keeper Manuel Neuer to go up for a late corner cost his team an embarrassing third.

Not only did Bayern struggle defensively, they posted their lowest xG figure of the season, and managed a pitiful one shot on target, their lowest figure since detailed records began. It's no surprise that the ultimate competitor Thomas Müller raged in his post-match interview at the team's lack of fight and inability to break out of the gameplan and improvise.

Bayern are saying publicly that Tuchel is in no danger of the sack, but everyone at the club is doubtless aware that another dreadful result in Rome will move the needle.

Bayern are still without the injured Kingsley Coman, Serge Gnabry, Alphonso Davies and Konrad Laimer. Neuer was a doubt before the Leverkusen game with a knee problem, but although he missed a part of training on Monday, he is expected to start in Rome.

Bayern too short but Kane can strike

Given Bayern's injuries and Saturday's debacle, I can't get excited about backing the German champions to win this first leg at 1.75/7. What I will do though is take advantage of the fact that Harry Kane is trading at 2.0421/20 to score at any time.

Kane was a peripheral figure in Leverkusen, but it's worth bearing in mind he has banged in 24 goals in the league and four in the Champions League. Lazio don't have the capability to press Bayern in the same way that Leverkusen did, and I'm expecting some kind of reaction from Tuchel's side, even if it might not be enough to win the game.

Roman gladiators to pick up punishments

Bayern are in the Bundesliga's top five when it comes to the fair play table, having picked up just 34 yellow cards and two reds in 21 league games. They tend to dominate possession, which contributes to them having a low number of egregious fouls.

Even on Saturday, when you would've thought they would become frustrated as they were totally outplayed, they only collected two cautions.

Conversely, Lazio are in the top five offenders in Serie A's fair play table, with 60 yellow cards and two reds. They are also in the top five miscreants in the Champions League, with 20 cautions in just six games.

On that basis, backing Lazio to pick up the most cards on the Sportsbook seems to be a value play at 6/42.50.

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