Galatasaray v Man Utd: Combine Gala and cards for 7/4 Bet Builder

• Man Utd need a result otherwise it's curtains

• Ten Hag's men very vulnerable on the road

• Back 7/42.75 Bet Builder that combines Gala & cards

Galatasaray v Man Utd
Wednesday 29 November, 17:45
Live on TNT Sports

With Bayern Munich home and dry in Group A, the battle for second place intensifies as Manchester United head to Istanbul knowing defeat would eliminate them from the Champions League.

Gala are level with Copenhagen on four points, one ahead of United, who have taken a miserly three points from their opening four games.

Even if United can take maximum points in Turkey, Erik ten Hag's side may also need a result against Bayern in their final group match to qualify. The outright market in Group A shows that Galatasaray are 11/102.11 favourites to qualify as runners-up with United a 2/13.00 shot and Copenhagen 23/103.30.

Back United to flounder on the road again

The 1/X/2 market has a beautiful symmetry to it with both teams trading at 7/52.40 on the Betfair Sportsbook and the draw almost the outright favourite at 15/82.88 which is a rare occurrence in football betting.

A stalemate would leave qualification in Gala's hands heading into the final week. Meanwhile, usually leaving with a point from such an intense European away day would be seen as a point well gained for United. But, realistically, they need more this time.

And at the prices, it's very difficult to show any confidence on the away win.

United may have won four of their last five Premier League matches but Erik ten Hag's side are posting some grim underlying numbers and aren't exactly passing the eye-test either.

There's little control to their game, the defence remains vulnerable when put under pressure, hence why their overall expected goals against data is that of a mid-table side. Somehow, they managed to escape Goodison Park with a clean sheet despite shipping 2.47 worth of non-penalty expected goals.

Ten Hag's football is proving to be that of a flat-track bully.

When the terrain gets tougher and the heat of the opposition increases, this United team usually flounder. The manager has yet to win a Premier League game away from home against a top-nine ranked side from 10 opportunities, whilst defeats to Bayern Munich, FC Copenhagen, and Sevilla in last year's Europa League quarter-final, show further evidence of them being exposed when faced with stopping high quality attackers.

With the scenario of the draw seemingly suiting both teams, I want that on my side when plotting a punt therefore the 4/9 on Galatasaray in the double chance market is great starting point when building an angle of attack.

Cards to flow in hot atmosphere

A trip to Galatasaray remains one of the most intimidating tasks in European football. It's like playing in a cauldron. It's red hot.

And what happens when the atmosphere gets hot in a potentially make or break game? You head to the cards market, that's what, where we are greeted with some surprisingly generous odds on the over/under.

The line has been set at 4.5 cards with [Evens] available for the game to produce five or more. Both Galatasaray's home fixtures in the Group surpassed that line - and I'd expect it to once again.

The appointment of referee Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez adds further confidence behind this being a festival of cards. His overall average of 5.64 cards per 90 from 14 games this season is a strong enough argument when drawing down the basic data, but we also get the bonus of him being what I like to call a Pringles referee. Once he starts to pop, he can't stop.

He brandished 12 yellow cards when Barcelona met Atletico Madrid towards the end of last season in LaLiga and lost control when dishing out 13 yellows in a recent Euro 2016 qualifier between Albania and Poland.

With that in mind, taking a swipe at the maximum card line to be breached at over 8.5 at 16/117.00 is also worth a small investment along with the 7/42.75 Bet Builder play.

Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, is Sky Sports' resident betting expert - follow his Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.

Also on Wednesday: Arsenal v Lens. Read why Dave is backing a 9/25.50 Bet Builder here!

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