Champions League Final Betting Tips: The 4 biggest threats to Manchester City's treble

• Inter to frustrate the Blues

• Dzeko set to come back and haunt City

• Nerves could impact Guardiola's men

There are 150 reasons to think that Manchester City can win in Istanbul, them being the number of goals the Blues have scored this season, a full third more than Inter.

Pep Guardiola's double-winning, treble-chasers have notched every 36 minutes across 2022/23 and conceded every 117 minutes. Erling Haaland has converted more times than two Premier League clubs (Everton and Wolves) while Kevin De Bruyne has assisted 31 times.

The only game they've lost since early February was when they phoned it in on the final day, the title wrapped up.

There's another four reasons for good measure.

But while City deserve to be strong favourites it has led to some downplaying of Inter Milan's merits and that's just plainly wrong.

I Nerazzurri have every hope, and every chance, of bringing the big-eared trophy back to the peninsula.

The Conte legacy

Antonio Conte may have left Inter in a huff two years ago but so many of the principles he put in place remain.

Granted, Simone Inzaghi's 3-5-2 is a different beast to the counter-attacking carapace constructed by his predecessor, as illustrated by I Nerazzurri having the third highest possession stats in Serie A this season.

Their midfield is made up of a triumvirate of ballers, who quickly seek out a lethal front two who are typically assisted by adventurous wing-backs in Federico Dimarco and Denzel Dumfries. Between them, they have 17 goal contributions this term.

But still, when out of possession it's very easy to evoke Conte's stingy, structurally-sound unit that won a Scudetto in 2020/21.

This presents a problem for Guardiola in that he has previous in struggling to break down Conte-inspired systems. Last February, City were nullified and beaten by Spurs while in their head-to-head record going back to 2016, the Catalan comes off worse.

The Dzeko narrative

Unquestionably, Inter have the firepower to greatly trouble a City rearguard that keeps fewer clean sheets than you may think.

Across their league campaign, Manchester United kept four more shut-outs, while just four from their last 18 suggests their recent defensive reconfiguration - though undeniably improving them - comes with a slight design flaw.

Lautaro Martinez is precisely the kind of clinical finisher to capitalize on slightly ajar doors and furthermore is a man for the big occasion, as demonstrated by his brace two weeks ago in the Coppa Italia final. No player in Serie A scored more match-winners this season, his 21 goal tally bettered only by Napoli's Victor Osimhen.

Romelu Lukaku is also of course a significant threat, the Belgian banging in seven from his last seven starts, but it's the 37-year-old Edin Dzeko who City fans will be fearing the most.

The Blue legend started both semi-final legs and we've seen this movie before.

The pocket radio

Nicolo Barella's distinctive nickname comes from his constant talking on the pitch, instructing and inspiring his team-mates, and he'll likely have a big say in proceedings amidst the fiery environs of the Ataturk Stadium.

The wonderfully gifted 'mezzala' (half-winger) has accrued 20 assists in his last two league campaigns and what makes him a particular threat is how well he combines with Martinez, the pair so often on the same wavelength.

With 1.6 key passes per 90 and 0.9 shots, the Italian international is the player who will keep Inter ticking along and cleverly so.

The stakes

City's winning mentality has been proven time and time again. When they are up against it, they implicitly trust in the process, maintaining their rhythm so as to continue finding their passes. They have an unshakable belief that chances will come.

When they're ahead, they tend to stay ahead, dropping points just eight times from 49 winning positions this season. That amounts to 16.3%.

But this is a Champions League final. This is the game that will define them infinitely more than a multiple of five-goal spankings in the Premier League. How they will be remembered will ultimately be from 90 minutes such as this.

Let's not devalue who City are, and what they've done, by suggesting they might fail to show up in Turkey. But if it's level after the break they simply wouldn't be human if nerves don't kick in hard, prompting the odd mistake.

Inter incidentally, are also extremely good front-runners. In fact, they're better than City in this regard, dropping points from 15.7% of their leads in 2022/23.