Peter reveals how to predict the number of goals
Understand how markets are connected
Make informed bets on the Champions League
If you're into betting or trading on football matches, there's a critical factor you need to understand.
You may have an opinion on how the match will likely play out, but how do you know if your opinion matches that of the betting market?
Here's how you can understand what the market tells you and how that can shape whether you decide to back or lay in a football match.
The significance of goal forecasts
Understandably, the number of goals scored in a match plays a pivotal role in various betting strategies.
For example, understanding the market's goal forecast becomes essential if you prefer the over/under 2.5 goals strategy.
Additionally, the expected goal tally can offer insights into the likelihood of a draw. Matches with fewer goals are more likely to result in a draw, while those with more goals have a lower probability of ending level.
With this knowledge, you can align your strategy with the market's expectations and make more informed decisions.
How the markets are connected
When it comes to football betting, it's essential to recognise the interconnected nature of different markets.
Whether you're analysing match odds, correct score markets, or over/under options, they're all intertwined. Understanding this relationship is vital to successful betting or trading in football.
To unveil the market's goal predictions, we need to take an unconventional approach and turn to the football match you are interested in on the Betfair Exchange.
Unlike traditional bookmakers, betting exchanges offer odds with minimal margin, reflecting market sentiment more accurately.
The law of averages
To start decoding the market's goal predictions, look at the odds for a 0-0 scoreline in the correct score market.
We can estimate the average number of goals expected by converting these odds into percentages.
For example, if the odds for 0-0 are 10, it implies a 10% chance of no goals or a 90% chance that there will be goals. We can then use a bit of maths to convert this into the number of goals expected in the match.
Based on our model, odds of 10.0 correspond to an average goal count of around 2.30.
Of course, you can't have 2.30 goals in a match, but this number tells you that if this match was played 100 times, there would be 230 goals, an average of 2.30.
The odds of 0-0 will translate into a forecast for goals. To keep things easy to understand, I've included a table for you: -
Predicting goals in Champions League semis
Knowing the anticipated goal count lets you determine whether your strategy aligns with the market's forecast. This insight leads to more informed decision-making and increases your chances of success.
If we look at the Champions League matches this week, we can see that Inter v AC Milan is forecasting just under 2.5 goals.
This implies the market thinks it could be a low-scoring match as the home team seeks to hold on to the aggregate leads. As the game unfolds, watching the contest will tell you if this is happening.
Moving to the Man City v Real Madrid match on Wednesday, that is discounting 3.0 goals. That seems relatively high considering how delicately balanced the game is, and it indicates that a 2-1 scoreline is the most likely outcome. But 3-0 is also a possibility.
Of course, this is football, anything could happen. But the market is strongly indicating that these are the most likely scenarios.
If you disagree, you can back, lay or trade however you wish, to take advantage of that insight and if you are correct, you will profit.
It's also worth noting that the market will change in-play if this scenario is not playing out, so that will present a trading opportunity for you as well.
Increase your chances of profiting
Understanding and predicting the number of goals can enhance your ability to profit from a football match.
This calculation can determine the number of goals by looking at related markets.
Of course, anything can and will happen in football. So all this is telling you is what the market thinks.
Once the match is underway, watching the game will let you know whether the expectation meets reality, and you can act accordingly.
Regularly using this method will give you more consistency, as you can target specific matches that fit your criteria.