Atletico Madrid v RB Leipzig: Simeone's men too short at odds-on

• Leipzig won at BayArena in last away game

• Atletico on form, but too short at odds-on

• Xavi to foul and be fouled

Atletico Madrid v RB Leipzig
Thursday 19 September, 20:00
Live on Discovery+

Summer signings shining at the Metropolitano

Although Conor Gallagher may have been reluctant to leave boyhood club Chelsea, there's no doubt that he is an excellent fit for Atletico Madrid and his new coach Diego Simeone. The England international's dynamism, toughness and willingness to run in service of the team make him an ideal exponent of Cholismo, and he has already found the net. Gallagher scored his first Atleti goal in the weekend's 3-0 win over Valencia, making a trademark burst into the box to convert a cute pass from Rodrigo De Paul.

At the end of that 3-0 win, Julian Alvarez netted his first goal after a big-money move from Manchester City. The World Cup winner has already achieved a huge amount as a star in the City constellation, and now he wants to shine a bit brighter in the Spanish capital as a more elevated figure. Atletico have spent heavily, a big departure from years of Simeone being asked to make do and mend on a relative shoestring budget.

It's significant that despite big changes in the Atleti squad, French veteran Antoine Griezmann remains a key figure. He was involved in the move that leg to Gallagher's maiden goal, and then he swept home a goal of his own with a piece of quick thinking. The 33-year-old has already contributed two goals and two assists in five games.

Atletico are unbeaten in La Liga, having won three and drawn two of their games so far, and their home record remains formidable. Los Colchoneros are unbeaten in their last ten Champions League games at the Metropolitano, and in all competitions they have suffered just two home defeats in their last 41 games.

There are no fresh injury concerns for Simeone, who must decide how heavily to rotate his squad. Renildo is injured, while Pablo Barrios faces a race to be fit.

Consistency the watchword for frustrated Leipzig

The last few weeks have been typical of RB Leipzig. They won 3-2 at last term's double winners Bayer Leverkusen just before the international break, becoming the first German team to beat Xabi Alonso's men since May 2023. Die Roten Bullen then followed that up with an anaemic goalless draw against Union Berlin, a game in which they ran out of ideas completely in the second half. Belgian striker Lois Openda was Leipzig in microcosm, as he followed up a brace at the BayArena with a tame penalty miss against Union.

However, it's worth noting that it's not easy to knock over Marco Rose's team. They haven't lost any of their last 16 competitive games, and that includes a 1-1 draw at Real Madrid in last season 's knockout phase of the Champions League. That was a game and a tie that Leipzig should really have won, given that they carved out a glut of chances, only to squander most of them.

It's worth noting that although Leipzig did stick to their business model of "buy 'em low, sell 'em high" this summer (they sold Dani Olmo and Mohammed Simakan for big money), they did also keep most of the players they wanted to. Openda and strike partner Benjamin Sesko were retained, and Dutch playmaker Xavi returned for a second straight loan season. There were also sensible additions - Dutch international defender Lutsharel Geertruida came in from Feyenoord, while Arthur Vermeeren and Assan Ouedraogo are young midfielders with huge potential.

Ouedraogo remains on the sidelines with injury, as does Austrian midfielder Xaver Schlager. The attacking trio of Sesko, Openda and Xavi should all start, although Sesko looked a bit listless on Saturday after starring for Slovenia in the international break. The return of defensive leader Willi Orban after suspension is a big boost.

Atletico too short at odds-on

As strong as Atletico are on home soil, I can't get on board with them being 1.784/5 to win this. Leipzig just went to Leverkusen and won, and last term they won at Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund and drew at Real Madrid. They have the firepower to damage Atletico, and the work-rate to cope with the Atletico midfield.

I'll simply lay the home side, which gets the draw and the away win on our side.

Xavi to be targeted

There's a lot to like about Dutch international Xavi, but he does spend a lot of time on the floor and he always seems unhappy about something. Part of that is down to the fact he gets targeted by the opposition - he's already been fouled nine times in three Bundesliga games this term, and last season he was fouled 70 times in the Bundesliga alone. Only Eintracht Frankfurt forward Omar Marmoush drew more fouls over the season.

Xavi is no angel himself, averaging just over one foul per 90 in the Bundesliga, so I'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to combine Xavi to be fouled at least twice, for him to commit a foul himself and for him to have a shot at 2.1411/10.

Now read our other Champions League previews here!