Atletico Madrid v Inter Milan: Hosts look overpriced vs Serie A leaders

• Atletico 18-1-1 at home this season

• Ref Marciniak has a great penalty record

• Bets at 3.02/1 and 3.185/40 - profit secured if one wins

• Read about Betfair's 90 Minute Payout offer here

Atletico Madrid v Inter Milan
Wednesday 14 March, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports 1

This was always expected to be one of the most competitive last-16 ties in this season's Champions League and it has reached the halfway stage intriguingly poised.

A late goal from Marco Arnautovic (who is set to miss this game) means Inter arrive in the Spanish capital holding a 1-0 advantage, one they deserved on the balance of play in the first leg at the San Siro.

13 in a row for Inter

They've since extended their winning run in 2024 to 13 straight games. Nine of those matches have been won without conceding and they managed to deny Atletico a shot on target three weeks ago.

Up front, Lautaro Martinez now has 26 goals in all competitions, so Inter clearly have the goal threat to trouble an Atletico defence which has kept just a single clean sheet in the last 10 games.

Historically, Inter have struggled in Spain, however. They are winless in their last 10 visits, losing seven of those matches and despite their highly-impressive form, this won't be easy.

Atletico may have won just two of their last nine in all competitions but virtually all their problems have come away from home.

Atletico so strong on home soil

It's been real Jekyll and Hyde stuff from Diego Simeone's men this season but at the Metropolitiano, they've been rock solid - 18 wins from 20 games and just a solitary defeat.

That's arguably as impressive as Inter's 2024 run and my initial reaction was that they look overpriced here - Atletico are 3.02/1 on the Exchange to win the second leg in 90 minutes and 16/54.20 with the Sportsbook to qualify for the quarter-finals.

In the group stage, Atletico ran through their home games, winning all three against Feyenoord, Celtic and Lazio by a combined score of 11-2.

Yes, Inter is a notable step up but Real Madrid have lost here this season (twice if you count the extra-time Copa del Rey success).

Again, looking at the long-term stats, Atleti have lost only five of 49 home Champions League games under Simeone, while they've also won seven of the last nine at home to Italian teams.

For this contest, Antoine Griezmann is expected to return from injury - at least that is what the Spanish media is reporting - although Jose Maria Gimenez looks set to miss out with the experienced Stefan Savic tipped to fill in.

Frankly, I find this tough to call but if you fall back on the old betting adage that price is king, Atleti look the bet here.

3.02/1 about a team who have won 18 of 20 home games this season - and have to win this one to survive in the competition - simply looks too big.

Yes, they will have to improve considerably on both their first-leg display and the weekend's loss to Cadiz, but it's consistently been a different story on home soil.

I'd also expect another tight game with under 2.5 goals (1.855/6) a distinct possibility; it rarely looked in doubt in the first leg.

Penalty angle

In the sub-markets, one bet I always consider when I see referee Szymon Marciniak on the appointment list is a penalty to be taken.

The Pole has now delivered on this bet in 16 of his last 35 UEFA club appointments, while the two teams have been no strangers to spot-kicks this season - Inter have been awarded a league-high six in Serie A, with Atleti getting five in La Liga.

We've seen how easily penalties can be given for handball in this competition and Marciniak is certainly a referee who is quick to point to the spot.

The ref has averaged 6.33 cards per game in this season's Champions League, albeit that's over a small sample of just three matches.

Still, it's easy to see these two teams getting a bit narky if this is as tight as expected.

There were six cards shown in the first leg, Atleti winning the count 4-2, and a similar outcome is worth considering.

They are 7/52.40 to pick up the most cards in this match and they are well known for their mastery of the 'dark arts' which will surely come into use if they manage to get ahead, while frustration could easily lead to bookings if they don't.

Bet Builder double pays 3/14.00

For a Bet Builder, I'm happy to combine that option with Marcos Llorente to be fouled at any stage.

The Atleti utility man was fouled twice in the first leg and has now landed this bet in seven of his last eight appearances.

The double pays just over 3/14.00.

Opta fact

This will be Atletico manager Diego Simeone's 50th home game in charge in the UEFA Champions League, the seventh manager to reach that particular milestone. He's lost just five of his 49 at home so far (W31 D13), with no manager losing fewer in their first 50 (Pep Guardiola and José Mourinho also 5).

Now read our Dortmund v PSV tips here!

Football... Only Bettor - Watch here!