Atletico Madrid v Borussia Dortmund: 11/8 shot appeals for Atleti

• Atletico excel at home under Simeone

• Spaniards are W10-D6-L0 in home UCL knockout ties

• Oppose a high-scoring showdown in Madrid

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Atletico Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
Wednesday April 10, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

Solid home form

Atletico Madrid 1.824/5 were able to enjoy a weekend off La Liga action with the Copa del Rey final taking centre-stage in Spain on Saturday but Diego Simeone's side have been hard at work in preparation for their Champions League quarter-final showdown, knowing the importance of the first leg at their fortress Metropolitano Stadium.

Los Colchoneros dramatically beat Inter on penalties in front of their own supporters in the last-16, roaring back after falling 2-0 down on aggregate to continue a remarkably strong record under Simeone. In home knockout UCL football, Atletico have now posted W10-D6-L0 under the Argentine, keeping 12/16 clean sheets and conceding just four goals.

The exemplary home results aren't confined to Champions League, however. The capital club have recorded 18 victories at the Metropolitano this term, suffering only two losses - and considering the club's sketchy record on the road, you would expect Atletico to be incredibly eager to make the most of their home advantage in this first leg on Wednesday.

Disappointing defeat

Borussia Dortmund 5.104/1 warmed up for their trip to Spain with a disappointing home defeat to fellow high-flyers Stuttgart at the enormous Westfalenstadion.

The Saturday setback saw Die Schwarzgelben drop out of the Bundesliga's top-four positions as Edin Terzic's troops were unable to follow up their victory in Der Klassiker.

BVB have now suffered three losses to Stuttgart this season, though Terzic felt their performance at the weekend was a significant improvement on the last two games between the two sides with Dortmund's boss adding, "It's a disappointing feeling. We played a decent game and put in a lot of effort in and deserved to take at least a point."

The visitors head to Madrid with an almost full-strength squad to call upon - Ramy Bensebaini is expected to miss the rest of the season, whilst Donyell Malen is a slight doubt on the injury front. No major changes are expected from Terzic, although Sebastien Haller and Youssoufa Moukoko are now vying for a starting berth alongside Niclas Füllkrug up top.

Atletico to hot to handle at home

It's difficult to dismiss Atletico Madrid's home record this season, or their historic record under Diego Simeone in home Champions League knockout ties, and the price on Los Colchoneros is perfectly palatable on the nose. However, we can bolster the odds on offer to [11/8] by backing Atletico to win and Under 3.5 Goals in Wednesday night's contest.

An enormous 70% of first leg knockout Champions League matches have featured fewer than three goals since the away goals rule was abolished with only two of those tussles across the past three campaigns producing four strikes or more.

Dortmund have displayed a penchant for substance over style and have proven to be a functional outfit in away matches that matter under Edin Terzic. The Germans have pace and trickery in transitions but look unlikely to go for the jugular from the off, giving furth credence to a relatively low-scoring first fixture in Madrid.

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