Atletico Madrid v Arsenal: Back 16/5 Bet Builder in tight first leg

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Gunners are finding it more of a grind

Arsenal returned to the top of the Premier League with a 1-0 victory over Newcastle at the weekend, a solid response to their 2-1 defeat at Manchester City which blew the title race completely open.

And yet the nerves and jitters were once again present despite Arsenal scoring early against the Magpies. This may well end up being an astonishing season for the Gunners but, boy, nothing is coming easy and they seem to be putting their fans through the ringer in every single game.

By comparison, Europe seemed a fun skip in the park in the early months of the season as they glided through the league phase with eight wins out of eight. But they've found it progressively harder in the knockout stages.

Despite a favourable draw through to the semis, Mikel Arteta's men were held 1-1 by Bayer Leverkusen in the first leg before winning 2-0 back at the Emirates while they just edged out Sporting 1-0 on aggregate (1-0 away and 0-0 at home) in the quarters.

Atleti have strong European pedigree

This is a second straight semi-final for Arsenal but Atletico Madrid, who stunned Barcelona in the last round, have a notable European pedigree since Diego Simeone took over way back in 2011.

In that time, they've reached two Champions League finals (2014 and 2016) and won two Europa Leagues (2012 and 2018).

They're clearly dangerous rivals for Arsenal although one thing sticks out like a sore thumb when looking at the league phase of this competition: an October meeting at the Emirates which ended Arsenal 4-0 Atletico Madrid.

Arsenal clear favourites to progress

Over two legs, it's no surprise to see Arsenal fancied to make it through to next month's final in Budapest.

The Gunners are 40/851.47 in the 'To Qualify' market, with Atletico 13/82.63.

The match betting for the first leg at the Wanda Metropolitano is much tighter. Again, Arsenal are favourites but only just. They trade at 13/82.63, with Atletico Madrid 15/82.88. A draw on the night is 11/53.20.

In the outright Champions League betting, Bayern Munich are the 13/82.63 market leaders ahead of their tie with holders PSG, who trade at 9/43.25. Arsenal are second favourites at 9/43.25, while Atletico Madrid are the 7/18.00 outsiders.

Goals could be sparse

At half-time of the league phase game between this pair, the score was 0-0. Everything then changed in the second 45 when the Gunners went wild by scoring four times.

The victory was number six of a superb 10-match win sequence in which Arteta's side conceded just once. That vibrant version of Arsenal has long since disappeared.

It's 13 games since they scored more than twice in a game and it's now just five goals in the last seven matches.

But in that same run, the men from north London have kept three clean sheets and it's that defensive know-how that Arteta will surely lean into here.

Although Atleti play a far more open game than they used to, the hosts won't get the spaces that Barcelona afforded them and I see this being tight and cagey with Arsenal going into their shell to set themselves up for the return.

Going Under 2.5 goals is the play at 8/131.61 although I'll make that part of a Bet Builder with a second element that logically follows on.

Expect Arsenal cards

Part of the deal of trying to keep Atleti quiet is not allowing them space by doing whatever that takes. In other words, not being afraid to accept cards.

That's easier to do at this stage as all yellow cards picked up previously are wiped out ahead of the semi-finals.

Add in the likelihood of some dark arts provocation from Simone's side, and backing Over 2.5 Away Team Total Cards at 9/52.80 appeals.

When combined in a tight/niggly-themed Bet Builder, three or more cards for Arsenal and under 2.5 goals pays 16/54.20.

For the record, Arsenal have picked up three or more yellows in three of their six European away ties this season and they were played in much less tense environments than the one they'll experience in Madrid on Wednesday night.

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