Arsenal v Porto: Back Bukayo Saka in a 7/2 Champions League Bet Builder

• Bukayo Saka flying in Europe

• Galeno still Porto's danger man

• Read about Betfair's 90 minute payout offer here

Arsenal v Porto
Tuesday, 20:00
TNT Sports 1

The Champions League round of 16 game between Arsenal and Porto is as delicately-poised as they come going into the second leg in London.

Porto handed the Gunners just their second defeat of 2024 in the reverse fixture, thanks to a last-minute goal from Galeno. The Gunners have made no mistake domestically since, though, and still have a 100 percent record in the Premier League in the calendar year.

While Arsenal were leaving it late fo beat Brentford on Saturday, Porto were moving on from a comfortable win at Portimonense the previous day. While Mikel Arteta's side are firmly part of a three-way title race, though, Sérgio Conceição's team will need their rivals to slip up if they're to secure domestic success.

Tournament chances vs match chances

According to Opta's figures, Arsenal (4.9%) are more than twice as likely as Porto (2%) to win the Champions League itself. However, thanks to their narrow first-leg advantage, the stats consider the Portuguese side 53-47 favourites to progress beyond this round.

That's not to say history points to an away win. Arsenal may have lost their last five home knockout games in the Champions League, but those were a long time ago and things have been different in Europe under Arteta.

Arsenal are 2/91.22 with Betfair to win on the night and 3/101.30 to qualify. Those favouring the English team may well point to their perfect group stage record in front of their home supporters - three wins from three without a goal conceded - and they're around 3/41.75 to win to nil on Tuesday.

Those backing Porto to qualify 12/53.40, however, might point to last season's Europa League. On that occasion, Arsenal won three from three in the groups before falling to Portuguese opposition when they failed to beat Sporting CP at the Emirates Stadium and eventually lost on penalties.

Saka vs Galeno

Galeno's goal at the Dragão was his eighth goal involvement in this season's Champions League, though a goal on Friday night saw his league tally finally overtake the five goals he's scored in Europe. Only two Porto players have ever scored in both legs of a Champions League knockout tie, but ironically both still ended up on the losing side - Mário Jardel against Bayern Munich in 2000 and Jackson Martínez against the same opposition 15 years later.

For Porto's opponents, the danger man is Bukayo Saka. The England international has scored and assisted in each of Arsenal's home European games this season, and is 9/25.50 to do the same this week - becoming only the second player to score and assist in four straight home games since records began.

The last time Arsenal made it past this stage in the Champions League, they did so courtesy of a Nicklas Bendtner hat-trick in a 5-0 victory over Porto. Arsenal are 5/16.00 to win by four or more goals this time out - something they have managed twice in the group stage and six times (home and away combined) in this season's Premier League

Arsenal v Porto prediction

Porto have never won an away knockout game in the Champions League outside Spain, which ought to bode well for Arsenal. However, ignoring the fact that a draw would suffice for the visitors, one of the aforementioned wins came against Chelsea when games were played on neutral ground in the 2020-21 edition of the tournament.

If Arsenal are able to make it through, Opta gives them a 23.8 percent chance of progressing to the semis. Only four teams were given a higher than 30 percent chance of reaching the semis before the second legs of their round of 16 games, with three of those four booking their place in the last eight and Internazionale having the chance to do the same on Wednesday.

Back to North London, and we have our eye on the Bet Builder market for this one, backing the hosts to get the job done inside 90 minutes. Arsenal -1, with Bukayo Saka 2+ shots on target and Kai Havertz 1+ shots on target can be backed at just under 7/24.50.

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