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Gunners boosted by Fulham cruise
As Mikel Arteta pointed out after beating Fulham, the trade-off for fatigue is rhythm.
That victory over their London rivals was important for lots of reasons. It moved the Gunners six clear at the top of the Premier League table, improved their goal difference over Manchester City to +41 v +37 and really put the stadium in positive and relaxed mood.
In other words, it was perfect prep for this return leg after the Gunners held Atletico to a 1-1 draw in Spain. While PSG v Bayern was football from the heavens, one of those two teams won't be making the Champions League final.
The door is open for Arsenal and they're now just 1/31.33 to go through. Atletico are 9/43.25 in the To Qualify market.
Simeone has obvious motivation tool
You'd imagine Diego Simeone's team talk will squeeze everything out of Ben White walking across the Atletico Madrid logo as the Gunners walked off the pitch last Tuesday.
Maybe a banner saying "Disrespect" to Arteta's Ted Lasso "Believe".
Whatever, the Argentine has been in this position plenty of times before and Julian Alvarez's 56th-minute penalty which wiped out Viktor Gyokeres' spot-kick just before the break gives Simeone plenty to work with even though he would have wanted a lead to take to the Emirates.
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Gunners can hold firm
In the Match Odds Arsenal are 4/61.67 to get the win in regulation time that will send them to the final. Atletico Madrid are 4/15.00 to secure that same prize while it's 3/14.00 for The Draw which would mean extra-time and the prospect of penalty drama.
It has to be said that Arsenal have barely put a foot wrong in this season's Champions League. They won all eight group games and for the last two rounds they've been strong in the away leg and then completed the job at the Emirates.
Both those second-leg wins - over Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting - came without conceding while Arsenal let in just four goals in the group phase.
Atleti won the away leg against Barcelona but Hansi Flick's side give you a chance with their high line. Arsenal's defensivve structure is way harder to break down and find a way through.
So that's all leading to a bet on Arsenal to win to nil at 17/102.70 - a punt that would have landed in the group phase when they swept aside Atleti 4-0 at the Emirates, allowing the visitors just one shot on target.
Back Arsenal to win to nil
Gyokeres worth a look for Bet Builders
Viktor Gyokeres scored twice in that 4-0 romp over Atleti in October and was on again on target when netting from the spot in last week's 1-1 draw.
The Swede, who scored the decisive goal in the playoffs that sent his country to this summer's World Cup finals, also bagged a brace in the weekend win over Fulham.
Since the calendar flipped to 2026, Gyokeres has scored 14 times for Arsenal, a sign that he's both grown in confidence and his teammates have learned to trust him and know how best to lay on chances.
He's 6/42.50 to score anytime and that's a play.
Back Viktor Gyokeres Anytime Goalscorer
For a bigger-priced Bet Builder, Gyokeres to score, Bukayo Saka to assist, Arsenal to win and Both teams to Score 'No' works out at 13/114.00.
There are plenty of elements but it landed against Fulham and was a Saka assist away from being a winner in the 4-0 victory over Atleti earlier in the tournament.
A final thought: if you like Atleti, perhaps there's a different way to play them and get even bigger odds than the 4/15.00 to win in normal time.
Here's the scenario: they're leading and, as the clock ticks down, out come all the dark arts.
The combo of time-wasting and tactical fouls leads to a series of yellows so, when the prices become available, look at the number of Total Away Cards that takes you over 4/15.00.
True, no Atleti player was booked in the first leg but the circumstances weren't the same.