Portsmouth v Derby: High upset rate to work to the Rams' benefit

Portsmouth 4.77/2 v Derby 1.875/6; The Draw 3.929/10
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

Portsmouth

The re-ascent hasn't commenced yet, but it finally feels safe to assume that Portsmouth have finished falling. Having dropped from the Premier League - and an FA Cup final outing - in 2010 to League Two in 2013, they have twice survived at that level, and by nine and 16-point margins too.

Some - though not one of Betting.Betfair's resident Pompey fans, Neil Monnery - may even start to suspect that they are fourth-tier title favourites on merit rather than name value for once. They have hired a manager who excelled in the division above with Chesterfield in Paul Cook and opened with a 3-0 victory over Dagenham and Redbridge in front of 16,948 fans.

Derby

There is no subtlety about Derby's ambitions for this campaign. After losing the Championship play-off final in 2013/14, they topped the table on numerous occasions in 2014/15 before missing out on a top-six finish by a point, and their response was to recruit Real Madrid number two Paul Clement.

Such a strategy almost propelled Middlesbrough to the Premier League last term, but the Rams' latest promotion challenge has hit a few early snags, namely a six-month injury to England U21 regular Will Hughes and a bore draw at Bolton in their first league fixture.

Match Odds

The annual Championship club cull that is the Capital One Cup first round has been more brutal than usual, with a whopping seven second-tier sides slain by League One or League Two opposition on Tuesday night.

It is therefore a very daunting position for Derby to be put in, stepping out 24 hours on from those upsets with the added pressure of performing in front of television cameras which have been set up owing to the Sky Sports schedulers scenting a shock.

Conversely, the extra anti-complacency warning can act in the Championship representatives favour, as was shown last year when Cardiff were called upon last at Coventry having seen ten of their compadres either be eliminated or taken to extra time and won 2-1, leading from the fourth minute.

Derby were also identified as vulnerable by Sky Sports in 2014/15, with their trip to Carlisle picked for a little televisual exposure and - while it took them over an hour to make a breakthrough - they did eventually prevail 2-0.

Clement's men have a decent Capital One Cup record, reaching the quarter-finals last season, the third round a year earlier and the semi-finals in 2008/09, and they have won three of their four away games in the competition in the past five years. Therefore, this column's prediction is that they will subvert the increased expectation of a "surprise result" as Cardiff did 12 months ago.

Derby Clean Sheet

Derby have won five of their eight Capital One Cup ties since the beginning of 2013/14 to nil, including first-round visits to lower-league teams in both 2013 (1-0 at Oldham) and 2014 (2-0 at Carlisle), whereas Portsmouth have lost four of their five matches in it since 2011 without netting. 2-0 was the Rams' favourite Capital One Cup scoreline last term and is a 10.09/1 shot.

Recommended Bets:

Back Derby to win @ 1.875/6
Back Derby to keep a clean sheet @ 2.6213/8
Back Derby to win 2-0 @ 10.09/1