Day 4 Africa Cup of Nations Tips: Follow the low goals trend to make a profit

• Injury concerns rock Burkina Faso

• Back Tunisia to defend solidly

• Lyle Foster absence blow for South Africa

Burkina Faso vs Mauritania - Tue, 14.00

Burkina Faso are 1.84/5 favourites in this match while Mauritania are 6.25/1 and the Draw is 3.211/5. But we suggest looking elsewhere, as injury concerns for Burkina Faso make low goals the smart selection.

Burkina Faso playmaker Bertrand Traore and star striker Dango Ouattara have been hampered by fitness issues in the build-up to this match. At the time of writing there's no guarantee either player will start.

Should either or both of the Premier League men be absent, Burkina Faso's chances of scoring would be significantly reduced.

Mauritania's chances of finding the net will be slim even at full strength. They lack a single outstanding finisher and have failed to score in their last three internationals (0-0 vs Tunisia and South Sudan, 0-2 vs DR Congo).

Mauritania's best hopes of getting something from this match will be to take a defensive approach and try to frustrate Burkina Faso as long as they can. If they play like this, and if Burkina Faso are below-strength, they may have some success.

All factors considered, low goals is the pick. You can back Under 2.0 on the Goal Lines market at around 1.910/11. Those odds are worth taking.

Tunisia vs Namibia - Tue, 17.00

Tunisia are 1.412/5 favourites to collect all three points from their opening game against Namibia on Tuesday. Namibia are 11.010/1 outsiders while the Draw is 4.3100/30.

Tunisia deserve those short odds although they lack the star quality and match-winning potential of some of the other teams in the top-half of the outright betting market.

In a game where defences may be on top, our pick is backing low goals. As the tournament began, we flagged up the low-scoring pattern of the group games at the last two Africa Cup of Nations tournaments, and we're expecting certain games to follow the trend this time around.

Across the opening three days of the tournament the matches have actually been significantly higher-scoring than they were in 2019 and 2021. Perhaps this high-scoring trend will replace the low-scoring trend we've become accustomed to - but we're still expecting some low-scoring games across the remaining group matchdays.

Tunisia have kept clean sheets in their last four internationals, and in seven of 12 since the start of 2023. Namibia have kept clean sheets in four of their last five internationals, including a 0-0 draw in their one and only pre-tournament friendly against Ghana last week.

Under 2.0 & 2.5 on the Goal Lines market is available at 1.9520/21. This looks like terrific value as the chances of this game having three or more goals appear slim. With this selection, you'll make a profit if the game has no goals, one goal or two goals.

Mali vs South Africa - Tue, 20.00

There's little optimism in South Africa about the Bafana Bafana's chances of doing well at this tournament. Concerns over the squad selection plus the absence of star striker Lyle Foster mean few give manager Hugo Broos' side a chance of going deep in the finals.

Mali look the better of these two sides, and are the 2.021/1 favourites to win. South Africa are 4.57/2, while the Draw is 3.211/5. We've already named Mali as our 13/82.63 tips to win Group E, while South Africa are 11/26.50 third favourites (behind Tunisia and Mali) to qualify from Group E for the knockout phase.

Rather than having a selection on this match, we prefer to take a watching brief in order to gauge the strengths and weaknesses of the two sides. On paper, Mali look like potential dark horses at this tournament, while South Africa may be even poorer than the market suggests.

This game should tell us more about whether those theories are true.

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