African Nations Cup QF Tips: Surprise package Gambia to frustrate Cameroon

James Eastham
28 January 2022
3:00 min read

Al Nassr and Cameroon striker Vincent Aboubakar

Six-goal tournament top scorer Vincent Aboubakar will be a key man for the hosts

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James Eastham discusses the odds and recommend his best bets for the first two quarter-finals at the African Cup of Nations on Saturday...

"At this tournament, four of Burkina Faso and Tunisia’s combined games have featured no goals or one goal, two have featured exactly two goals and only two have had three or more goals."

Best Bet: Back Burkina Faso vs Tunisia Under 2.0 on the Goal Lines market @ 1.75/7

Gambia the smart selection

Gambia v Cameroon
Sat, 16:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports

This encounter between hosts Cameroon and surprise package debutants Gambia promises to be one of the most absorbing games of the competition so far.

A clash of styles is on the cards as attack-minded Cameroon look to break down a Gambia side that have defended well at this tournament while posing a serious threat via their long-range shooting.

Before the tournament began, we backed Cameroon to win it at 10.009/1. They have since come in to 4.3100/30, making them second favourites behind Senegal at the time of writing.

If you followed our Cameroon tip you might like to lay off by supporting Gambia in some way. For a full guide to using Betfair to back and lay, click here.

Regardless of whether you backed Cameroon to win the competition, supporting Gambia in some way is a smart way to play given how they've performed at the finals.

Gambia picked up seven points from three games in the group stage, securing two 1-0 wins and drawing 1-1.

Their solid defensive performances continued as they beat Guinea 1-0 in the Last 16 stage thanks to a Musa Barrow winner.

Cameroon have showcased some tremendous attacking firepower at the finals - Vincent Aboubakar is the tournament's six-goal top scorer - but Gambia's will be the meanest defence they have faced so far.

Cameroon are a short-priced 1.68/13 to win and there's actually more appeal in backing Gambia on the Asian Handicap.

With our selection of Gambia +1.0 Asian Handicap, you'll make a profit if Gambia win or draw in 90 minutes, get your stakes back if Gambia lose by a single goal in 90 minutes, and only lose if Cameroon win by two or more goals in normal time.

For a full guide to Asian Handicap betting, click here.

Our second selection on the game is to back low goals. We're supporting Under 2.0 on the Goal Lines market at 1.910/11.

The stats are in our favour. Of the tournament's 44 games so far, 23 have had no goals or one goal, nine have had exactly two goals, and only 12 have had three or more goals.

Low goals on cards again

Burkina Faso v Tunisia
Sat, 19:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports

It's hard to justify Tunisia's clear favouritism as they head into their game against Burkina Faso on Saturday night.

Tunisia are 2.56/4 to win in 90 minutes, with Burkina Faso 3.814/5 and The Draw 2.8415/8.

Looking at the performances of the two sides across their four games each so far, there's little to pick between the two.

Burkina Faso earned four points from their three games in Group A, their only defeat coming against tournament hosts Cameroon (2-1). In the Last 16 they needed penalties to see off Gabon after a 1-1 draw.

Tunisia collected just three points from their three matches in Group F. But they fared better in the Last 16, beating Nigeria 1-0 in normal time thanks to a Youssef Msakni winner.

At the odds available, Burkina Faso are the more appealing selection. Kamou Malo's side have been one of the tournament's pleasant surprises.

Well-organised, Burkina Faso will be difficult to break down. They're also one of the tournament's most settled line-ups, with only 15 different players having started games so far. Their familiarity and understanding with one another on the pitch will help them.

Burkina Faso Draw No Bet at 2.56/4 is worth considering. With this selection, you'll make a profit if Burkina Faso win, and get your stakes back if the game ends in a draw.

Alternatively, look to Burkina Faso with a small start on the Asian Handicap. With our selection, you'll make a profit if Burkina Faso win or the game ends in a draw.

Our second selection is on low goals. The stats laid out in the Gambia vs Cameroon preview above show what a low-scoring tournament this has been.

More specifically, games involving these two sides have been generally low-scoring as well.

Four of Burkina Faso and Tunisia's combined games have featured no goals or one goal, with two having exactly two goals and only two having three or more goals.

PREM WATCH

All eyes will be on Bertrand Traore as Burkina Faso take on Tunisia on Saturday night.

We flagged up the Aston Villa attacker's scoring threat ahead of his nation's Last 16 clash against Gabon and he was on target in that match.

Traore was 5.04/1 to hit the target in that last outing against Gabon. He's available at 6.511/2 in the Anytime Goalscorer market this time. Those odds are appealing now he's found his range in front of goal.

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JAMES' AFCON 2022 P/L

Staked: 45pts
Returned: +42.04pts
P/L: -2.96pts

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