African Nations Cup Last 16 Tips: Back underdogs Gambia to spring yet another surprise

Low goals the smart selection

Guinea vs Gambia
Live on Sky Sports
Mon, 16:00 GMT

First-time finalists Gambia have caused a stir by getting this far and look a better bet than Guinea ahead of this fascinating Last-16 clash.

The Scorpions, as Gambia are nicknamed, claimed two wins and a draw to finish second on goal difference only behind Mali in Group F.

Two spectacular long-range strikes from Ablie Jallow - securing 1-0 wins over Mauritania and Tunisia - caught the eye, but it was the all-round organisation and solidity of Gambia in all three of their group matches that truly stood out.

Gambia's performances during the group phase suggest they'll be able to frustrate Guinea, and make Gambia the more appealing selection. Gambia's chances are also enhanced by the fact that Guinea star man Naby Keita is suspended and will miss the game.

Guinea are 2.226/5 to win in 90 minutes, with Gambia 4.216/5 and The Draw 3.02/1. At those odds, backing The Draw appeals.

Alternatively, lay Guinea at 2.245/4 or back Gambia with a small start on the Asian Handicap market. With both of these selections, you'll make a profit as long as Gambia avoid defeat in 90 minutes. For a full guide to Asian Handicap betting, click here.

Our second selection on the game concerns the goals market. Both of these sides were solid and fairly conservative during the group phase. There are no strong reasons to suspect this approach will change here.

Five of the six games involving these two sides during the opening round featured two goals or fewer. We're happy to back this low-scoring trend to continue.

Under 2.0 is available on the Goal Lines market at 1.84/5. With this selection, you'll make a profit if the game features no goals or one goal in 90 minutes, and get your stakes back if the game has two goals in 90 minutes.

Cameroon vs Comoros
Mon, 19;00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports

Hosts Cameroon have played some excellent football at the tournament so far and would be clear favourites even if both of these teams were at full strength heading into their Monday night encounter.

Yet a goalkeeping crisis has hit the Comoros squad and made Cameroon an unbackably short 1.11/10 to win at the time of writing, so it would be smart to wait for team news before having a bet on this game.

Reports coming out of the Comoros camp on Sunday morning indicate all three goalkeepers they have named in their squad for the competition might be unavailable to take part in this game.

Salim Ben Boina has been ruled out by injury and, ahead of this game, Ali Ahamada and Moyadh Ousseni have both tested positive for covid.

The tournament rules state that as long as 11 players are available in total, the game must go ahead, even if that means an outfield player going in goal. This explains why Cameroon's price to win in 90 minutes has rushed in from 1.330/100 to the shorter odds it is now.

The tournament organisers can override their own rules in exceptional circumstances but there's yet to be any statement on the situation ahead of this game.

Before news of Comoros' goalkeeping crisis broke, we fancied Cameroon to win. They looked focused and confident during the group phase and are enjoying tremendous support from their home public.

We backed Cameroon to be crowned champions before the tournament run and are happy with that selection. At the time we backed them, The Indomitable Lions were 10.09/1 fifth favourites; with a place in the quarter-finals theirs for the taking, they're now 5.59/2 joint favourites to win the trophy.

PREM WATCH

Ahead of Guinea's last game we flagged up Naby Keita at odds of 6.511/2 in the Anytime Goalscorer market. The Liverpool midfielder duly delivered, scoring shortly after half-time in his side's 2-1 defeat to Zimbabwe.

Keita would have been the main Premier League player on show on Monday - but has been ruled out of the game by suspension. His absence is a massive blow to Guinea's hopes of going through.