Ed Hawkins previews the final of the Vincy T10 Premier League on Sunday from Arnos Vale...
"We’d always bet a bowling team against a batting team. Hikers have only one bowler with an economy rate of below 8.2. Breakers have two under 7.38 and three under 6.86. That is the edge"
La Soufriere Hikers v Salt Pond Breakers
Saturday 30 May 17:00
TV: live on YouTube (search LSH v SPB)
Hikers go big
La Soufriere Hikers sent a message to the Salt Pond Breakers in the semi-final against Botanic Garden Rangers: we can outbat you.
Despite going up against an attack which boasted Kesrick Williams, the West Indies pacer, Hikers went into overdrive and smashed 150. Salvan Browne made 78 from 28 balls but whatever he could do, Dillon Douglas could do more. Douglas, coming in at No 4, hit seven sixes in an 18-ball 58.
It was the highest score of the tournament, busting the 132 for no loss that Breakers thrashed against the Hikers. Naturally, the result was never in doubt. The Hikers bowling is weak but not weak enough to put their attack under pressure with that score on the board. To cap a one-sided match, Jeremy Haywood took four wickets.
Probable XI S Browne (wkt), Harry, Douglas, Maloney, Hackshaw, Cain, Lewis, Williams, Haywood, Ken Dalzell, Kim Dalzell
Unlike the Hikers, the Breakers did not have an easy time in the semi-final against Grenadine Divers. But it was an even more extraordinary contest with favouritism flip flopping.
Breakers looked down and out batting second, somehow recovering from three for four. We'll be clearer: three runs for four wickets. They had earlier been under the pump when Asif Hooper and Romano Pierre looked set to propel Divers past 100 before Breakers' expert death bowling kept them down to 82 for nine.
That total looked insurmountable after just five balls when they found themselves four wickets down, Hooper removing Kadir Nedd and Sunil Ambris with the run out of Donwell Hector in between. Rickford Walker was the fourth to go for a two-ball duck.
Bizarrely, from then on it was easy. Benn Stapleton whacked 42 from 20 balls and Breakers got home with seven balls to spare. What was the fuss all about?
Possible XI Nedd, Ambris, Hector, Thomas, Walker, Stapleton, Johnson, Sween, Layne, Harry, Strough
Look for overreaction to Hikers' hit
The first-innings scores (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second) at the Vale read: 150-1/85-2/70-2/87-2/83-1/81-2/79-2/92-1/92-1/105-2/80-2/103-1/101-1/73-2/98-1/86-1/84-1/104-1/132-1/114-1/104-1/66-2/88-1/109-1/75-2/70-2/68-2.
The average first-innings score is 92. It the context of Hikers' 150 that seems low but it is an outlier. There have been nine scores of 100 or more, something to bear in mind when playing innings runs markets.
The toss is important if playing. Hikers' bowling could well go round the park but Breakers are much tighter. For Hikers batting first it could pay to go under 90 with the market overreacting to their monster score. Breakers could well bust that mark. Don't forget that Ambris and Nedd have been the most destructive pair in the tournament.
There are showers forecast for the start time but it is highly unlikely that overs will be lost. A bit of moisture is more liekly to keep batters pinned down.
In T10's short history scores of 100 are enough 60% of the time. But bust 110 and a team wins 80% of the time. In the Vincy only one side has lost scoring 88 or more - that was the Breakers against Hikers after posting 105.
Before this competition there had been six T20 internationals played at Arnos Vale between June 2013 and September 2014. The first-innings scores (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second) read: 111-tie/101-2/92-2(first three all women's matches WI v NZ)/135-1/152-2/81-2.
Breakers bowling key
This is a classic 'franchise' tournament match-up insofar as we have one side (the Hikers) who have made it to the final on the back of brutal batting power and another who are adept at all disciplines.
Ordinarily, the market favours the former. But not this time. Breakers are the 1.834/5 jollies with Hikers 2.1011/10. That's a decent price about the Breakers whose bowling has been vastly superior, despite that bad day office on the head-to-head.
We'd always bet a bowling team against a batting team. Hikers have only one bowler with an economy rate of below 8.2. Breakers have two under 7.38 and three under 6.86. That is the edge. Still, it's not unreasonable to reckon Breakers could drift a little and we'll book 1.9520/21 in-play.
Cricket...Only Bettor: The trends and key stats for the Vincy Premier League
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l
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Back Breakers in-play at 1.9520/21