Major league Cricket Tips Matches Eight and Nine: Batters are California dreaming

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Thursday 25 June, 02.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

San Francisco Unicorns v Texas Super Kings MLC Tips

The San Francisco Unicorns and Texas Super Kings get the California leg of the MLC underway following the Dallas openers. In those matches bats dominated bowlers. Will we get more of the same in Oakland?

There have been only nine T20 matches played at the Coliseum. All were in MLC. The runs per over is 9.26. There is a toss bias with six of the matches won by the side batting first. The study sample is probably too small to start betting big, though. It's more of a pointer about scoreboard pressure.

More than 200 has been breached in first dig four times, including a monumental 269 by Unicorns in the first match played there last season. The two lowest scores are 145 and 1653, the only times when the first-innings total has come under 181. Fair to expect some runs, then. The weather forecast is also playing ball. Not surprisingly temperatures have been high and a blazing sun a constant.

Both of these teams look set up to score big. Texas chased 221 to beat Orcas in the first match of the campaign, although they have subsequently had two wobbles against Unicorns and MINY. Unicorns hit 150 in a splash and bash in 14 overs in defeat by LA. They chased 153 against Texas with 13 balls to spare.

Options for runs include going over the sixes line at 19.5 at 4/51.80 with Sportsbook. A less stressful wager (and taking variables out of the equation) is the 5/61.84 that Unicorns go over 57.5 in the first six. They are set up for carnage with a front three of Lhuan-dre Pretorius, Finn Allen and Matt Short. We do expect a par line on the Exchange to be running at more than 200. but playing overs at a possible 205.5 isn't a huge ask.

For individual players, Faf Du Plessis was running at a 50% win rate on top bat after game one this season (that's a record across the last three editions including this one). With such a hefty study sample it might be time to consider to go back in. Sportsbook go 16/54.20 which is too big.

Washington Freedom v Seattle Orcas
Friday 26 June, 02.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Washington Freedom v Seattle Orcas MLC Tips

One of the core strategies for franchise cricket is tested in game nine and Freedom's third outing of the campaign. We are waiting on an elite performer to deliver a strong performance in a league which is low on quality. Time for Steve Smith to step forward.

Smith has had two moderate performances so far as Freedom haven't quite hit the heights of last season, when they topped the group and were runners-up to MINY in the final. They have already lost for example, suffering a surprise defeat by Seattle.

They roared back against MINY, posting 245, though. But Smith managed only a score of 27 in that contest to go with his 24. He has twice been outshone by fellow Aussie Mitch Owen, who looks in rare touch. Surely it is time to expect something big from Smith.

The ploy is simple. There is strong evidence, including past efforts from Smith, that the top echelon players find MLC easy pickings. Faf Du Plessis' win rate has already been discussed in this regard. Smith, with a back-to-back top bat wins, would go close to matching Faf.

Sportsbook make Smith 12/53.40 jolly for top Freedom bat. If you want to take others out of the equation a runs line of 26.5 is available.

If relying on one batter to go well is not for you, then why not pick all of them. This is another contest where batters should dominate at the Coliseum and go overs on runs is advised. For an Exchange strategy backing the side batting first for extremes - 230-250 is far from a mug wager.

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