Major League Cricket Tips matches 3, 4 and 5: Key win rates for final re-run

Click here for Seattle Orcas v Washington Freedom odds
Saturday 20 June, 01.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Seattle Orcas v Washington Freedom MLC Tips

Seattle have already been in action. They were on the wrong end of a runfest in the opener in Dallas versus Super Kings. They were impressive with the bat, posting 220. Less so with the ball and they failed to defend. Not even making it much of a heat.

They will have to learn quickly on another expected flat one at the Grand Prairie against a free-scoring Freedom side. Freedom were the best team in it last season, topping the ladder and being ranked No 1 for batting strike rate and bowling economy. However, they had a bad day at the office in the final, being upset by MINY.

This term Freedom aim to go one better. To do so they have returned Steve Smith and he will lead. Smith could open the batting with Mitch Owen. Glenn Maxwell is also in town although he appears to have reached that stage of his career where returns are ever diminishing.

It could be a good contest. Orcas had a well-balanced XI against Texas. Tim Seifert smashed a century and it was good to see Marcus Stoinis in at No 4. We would prefer Seifert being paired with Tim Robinson, his fellow Kiwi, in the opening slot, however. We're not sure Matt Breetzke offers more taking up an overseas slot in the middle order. Orcas did not include Lungi Ngidi in the opener so until he is confirmed it may be wise to expect them to continue to be pricey in the field.

The best wager appears to be with Smith on the tops. He wasn't available last season but the year before he won four in nine. His dominance in these lower-level franchise leagues should continue. He has been absolutely unstoppable in the Bash and this is not as good a standard. Sportsbook offer 23/103.30 and that is a price we can get on board with.

Texas Super Kings v San Francisco Unicorns
Saturday 19 June, 21.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Texas Super Kings v San Francisco Unicorns IPL Tips

Faf Du Plessis loves it Stateside and he belied his age with another extraordinary hitting show in the MLC. America brings the best out of Faf as he smashed 113 off 52 balls to guide his team to an easy win over Seattle, chasing 220, in the tourny opener. He got them home with nine balls to spare.

Du Plessis also picked up the man of the match award, once again showing the relationship between the top-bat winner of the favourite in the match odds and the gong market.

What is extraordinary about Du Plessis is his consistency in this tournament. His win rate is now bang on 50% from a massive 20-game study. It is worth musing whether the sequence can continue. Sportsbook go 9/43.25. One wouldn't rule it out but the main pointer may be that for top-quality players like Faf, it is evidence that they find the league very easy. The standard cannot be top-notch.

With him dominating, finding value elsehwere on rates is nigh on impossible. There might be a sniff on top bowler, though, with Adam Milne also at 50% but only through eight games. He is the right jolly at 3s.

One win-rate option which has been denied to us is Matt Short for top unicorns bat. Short came into the tournament at 38% from two season. But it was irritating to see him demoted to No 3 for Luhan-Dre Pretorius. Short's wins have come as opener so we cannot use that as a guide.

Washington Freedom v MINY
Sunday 21 June, 01.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Washington Freedom v MINY MLC Tips

Freedom, who dominated last season but fell at the final hurdle, might be feeling more constrained than their moniker suggests. Defeat by Seattle Orcas, who had been grubbing around at the botton for two years, in the opener was a bitter pill to swallow.

Freedom looked to have done everything right. They batted first and posted 216, not even needing a big one from Steve Smith. Mitch Owen and Mark Chapman, batting either side of the main man, hit rapid half-centuries.

But they couldn't hold off a charge from Orcas, led by Tim Seifert who went back-to-back on top bats. Marco Jansen and Lockie Ferguson were horribly expensive for attack leaders.

It's not great for Freedom that they face their nemesis. It was MI New York who caused the one-off bad day in the office to steal the title in the final last season. At least MINY are not at full-strength. Rashid Khan and Allah Ghazanfar are both away with Afghanistan.

To bolster resources, Shakib-al-Hasan has arrived as a temporary replacement. Caution is advised, though, as that news comes from MINY's own website. Which also seems to think that Rachin Ravindra will be playing. That's a tough ask given that we're pretty sure he is heavily involved at The Oval.

Betting focuses on win rates. Smith has four in ten. He wins at some stage. The 23/103.30 is decent business with Sportsbook. For MINY, Nic Pooran and Quinton de Kock will vye for honours. Pooran has six wins in 20, QDK seven in 19. Add in Monank Patel's four wins at it is an extremely competitive market. And then there's Ryan Rickleton. Pooran is 7/24.50. De Kock is 11/43.75.

It's not much fun to try to work out who to plump for. The shrewd movemay be to wait who wins first and then back the other.

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