India v West Indies third ODI Tips: Back Kohli to score a century as batters dominate

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Saturday 3 October, 09:30
TV: Live on TNT

India v West Indies third ODI team news

India are 2-0 up with a game to play and moving serenely towards a probable strong World Cup campaign, not least helped by the announcement of the schedule and groups. Amazingly, they have been drawn with Pakistan again. What are the odds!

No matter. India are proving too hot to handle for West Indies. With the bat at least. Records were smashed when they chased 406 inside 44 overs in game two. Previous criticism that they were a bunch of individuals who played for their averages or reputations (probably costing them the last World Cup), instead of a team, can be discounted.

Shubman Gill reeled off a double ton and Rohit Sharma a century. The question remains: how many could they get if batting first?

There should be at least one change to their team on Saturday. Prasidh Krishna has been ruled out with injury. Anshul Kamboj has been called up but with Mohammad Siraj named in the original squad he probably comes in.

Probable XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Gaikwad, Rahul, Jadeja, Naman, Auqib, Kuldeep, Siraj, Brar

West Indies are showing some fight with the bat and should take confidence from their effort despite defeat in Barsapara. It's harsh to criticise the bowlers because the pitch was flat. Instead focus on the three centurions.

John Campbell, Shai Hope and Amir Jangoo should ensure Windies are competitive in the World Cup, although they do have to ensure qualification first. They might want to avoid India in the group stage, though.

Shamar Joseph, Vitel Lawes, Sherfane Rutherford and Keemo Paul came in for Justin Greaves, Matt Forde, Gudakesh Motie and Jewel Andrew. Justin Greaves has been ruled out with injury.

Probable XI: Campbell, Carty, Hope, Jangoo, Rutherford, Chase, Paul, Joseph, Shamar, Seales, Lawes

India v West Indies third ODI pitch report 

This is the first ODI to be played at new Chandigarh. Internationally, there is almost no form to go on. There has been only one other white-ball match; a T20 when India conceded 213 against South Africa to lose in 2025. Fortunately, 17 IPL matches give us a clue. The average run rate in those games is 9.53.

The 2026 IPL matches were bat-dominated. In the six games, both teams to score 200 copped five times. The expectation, then, will be big runs again. Betfair Sportsbook offer first-innings runs at over 321.5 at 5/61.84, which is a leap from the game two pre-toss line of 300.5. We would expect the line to rise 30-40 runs if India bat first. This could be the game where we find out how big India could go.

In Barsapara we took the 11/82.38 that a first-innings ton would be scored. That has now been cut to 6/52.20 but our only worry was if Windies batted first. That they reeled off three tons means we're not alarmed by the shift down in odds and it's okay to play again.

Want more tips from Ed? Read his Asia Cup Final preview

India v West Indies third ODI match prediction 

West Indies' batting was so impressive last time out that they pulled off the trade strategy when batting first. The market has to respect their monstrous total.

Can they do it again? The issue will be that the market will factor in that they failed to defend what was a record chase for India. So it gets a little harder. In truth, however, most are not using the strategy for a choice affair or better.

West Indies to take a bit out of their odds with runs is the play. From a starting point of 5.104/1 a lay at 3.002/1 for an extra 50% from the original stake would give a profit both sides.

It has to be stressed that the trade is only an option if West Indies bat first. If India bat then West indies will just get bigger and bigger most likely.

Granted, they could pout up a reasonable fight in the chase and then we consider a different trade at greater numbers. But we would worry about whether West Indies have the mettle under scoreboard pressure.

India v West Indies third ODI player tips 

Milestone betting, milestone betting, milestone betting - that's the way to look at this ODI.

So far in this series three centurions have been pipped for a top-bat win. It is folly to be taking on four or five other batters for top-bat when one can simply hit the 50s/100s markets. Dutching selections to level stakes is absolutely fine.

For this one we will focus on Virat Kohli again. He is 5/23.50 for a ton. Ruturaj Gaikwad for a 50 also catches the eye at 13/82.63. Keacy Carty has missed out twice for West indies and he should be coming into the runs zone so a 50 for him at 11/43.75 appeals.

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