Champions Trophy Tips: India-Pakistan blockbuster final on the cards

Listen to Cricket...Only Bettor Champions Trophy Ultimate Guide

Pakistan v New Zealand Superboost

Pakistan play New Zealand in the first game of this year's Champions Trophy and the Betfair Sportsbook have a superboost for the game.

In the last two ODIs at the venue over 45 runs has been busted in the first 10 overs on both occasions, and we have super-boosted the price for 45+ runs in the first 10 overs on Wednesday from 8/131.61 to 1/12.00.

How does the Champions Trophy work?

This is a svelte-like World Cup with the best eight teams in the world split into two groups of four. The top two in each section then meet in the semi-finals with the winners of each playing off against the runners-up.

Group A consists of Pakistan, India, New Zealand and Bangladesh. In Group B world champions Australia face England, South Africa and Afghanistan.

There should be a fierce battle in Group B to top the ladder and try to avoid a last-four contest against India, who are hot favourites to win Group A at no better than 8/151.53

That's not just because India are the best team in it. For the second-successive global tournament the rules have been made to help them lift the title.

In the T20 World Cup they were the only team who knew where their semi-final matches would be played. In this tournament they have refused to travel to Pakistan so will play all their matches in Dubai, even if they make the final. That means they have been able to select a squad for one venue whereas other teams have had to select a group for up to three. They will also know the surface inside out by the time the knockouts start.

Do India win the Champions Trophy?

India boast the best win percentage in the last two years (an extraordinary 70%), the meanest bowling economy and the best runs per wicket average. There is no doubt they are the best team and it is very hard to see how they fail to make the last four, not least because if they do start to struggle rules will be bent to ease their passage (see the concussion sub ruling farce against England in the recent T20 series).

But there is one factor that does weaken them; the absence of Jasprit Bumrah. Bumrah is the best pacer in the world and has been ruled out with injury. India are undoubtedly weaker without him. But in real terms what size hole does he leave?

Well, with and without Bumrah (last two years), India's economy goes from 5.12 runs per over to 5.39. And the bowling averages rises from 24.6 to 26.9. They are not exactly catastrophic changes. 

To put the economy and bowling average numbers into context without Bumrah, India would still rank No 1 on the former and third on the latter set against the other seven teams in the competition. They might not miss him as much as one thinks. 

There is also a suggestion that a toss bias in Dubai could trip them up in day-night games. There is no evidence of a bias in the 27 games, although we have to be aware it could be a factor because of how dew made chasing so much easier in the ILT20. In short, India should win the title. There is nothing wrong with a bet on them at 2.8415/8 on the Exchange.

Which teams can stop India?

It might be a case of avoiding India, instead of stopping them. So it is arguable that Group A bedfellows Pakistan and New Zealand have an advantage by not meeting the superpower in a semi-final.

With only Bangladesh to overcome in that section, 'hosts' Pakistan and the Kiwis go head-to-head in a unofficial quarter-final. Pakistan at 13/53.60 to reach the final and New Zealand at 10/34.33 for the same price with Sportsbook are two bets which make sense.

Group B is awash with problem teams. Australia's first-choice pace attack (Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc) are all unavailable, South Africa have suffered injury woes with their unit and England better only Bangladesh's win rate in the last two years.

No wonder, then, that we were quick off the mark to advise Afghanistan at 30.029/1 for the title and the 7/24.50 that they reach the last four. That latter price is still there and it is probably still the bet of the tournament. 

Each team's possible XIs, power rankings and analysis can be found here. In terms of those win rates, if they were to hold firm the semi-final line-up would look like this:

- India v South Africa

- Australia v Pakistan

A blockbuster Indo-Pak final, then, is on the cards in Dubai. Pakistan at least get home advantage in their last four clash. Sportsbook make an India-Pakistan final a 15/28.50 second-favourite chance. Logic dictates that India-New Zealand final is worth a shout at 9/110.00.

Top tournament runscorer predictions

In six of the last seven Champions Trophy tournaments, an opening batter has finished as the top runscorer. Look no further than the top two for each team, then. For further value, filter those with strong records in Asia.

With India and Pakistan or New Zealand favoured to go deep into the tournament we have a focus on four players. Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill, the India openers, could have storming campaigns. Rohit is 9/110.00 and it perhaps a surprise not to see him level-pegging with favourite Gill at 6/17.00. 

What puts us off is the fact the Dubai surface for India might not be as good a batting track as those in Pakistan. And, well, frankly, the bigger prices elsewhere. 

Pakistan's Fakhar Zaman at 18/119.00 and New Zealand's Will Young at a whopping 50/151.00 have excellent records in the conditions, averaging 52 and 40 respectively in the last two years. Fakhar will go hard and Young will be more steady. It is a slight concern that Young is coming under pressure for his place before the off. Contrasting styles should keep you interested. Back both each-way at a quarter the odds the first four. 

Top tournament wicket-taker predictions

The left-arm death bowler has long made big inroads into the white-ball top tournament wicket-taker lists. With two of three of the best around not available for this tournament, a bet on the odd one out has to be considered.

Shaheen Shah Afridi can reminds us all of his potency in the absence of Mitchell Starc and Trent Boult. Afridi has been in tremendous form in the build-up to this one. His action is smooth and whippy with the ball being released perfectly for swing.

He deserves more respect on the market than 16/117.00. The science behind the bet stands up. Afridi has the best strike rate of any bowler in the last two years (20 wickets or more) in Asia bar Haris Rauf and Mohammad Shami. One could be on those two as well if you like but Rauf comes into this series off the back of an injury and Shami didn't set the world alight against England recently. 

Now read more Cricket tips and previews here!