Champions Trophy Winner: Get ready for Afghan charge

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Conditions should suit outsiders

Speed can be of the essence when it comes to betting. Wait too long and the value has gone. So it seems pertinent to hit the Champions Trophy market early in anticipation of a price disappearing.

Afghanistan are value at 30.029/1 on the Betfair exchange to win their first global title. The competition doesn't start until 19 February and they don't play until two days after that yet the reason for a collapse in their price is about what may happen elsewhere much earlier.

Specifically England's wretched form against India in a three-game contest. It could prove to be an embarrassing series for England, who collapsed to spin (again) from 170 for four to a pathetic 248 all out in Nagpur.

England meet Afghanistan in Group B. With the top two going through in a section also comprising Australia and South Africa, few should be surprised if the Afghans advance to the last four.

In truth, it's not a wager based solely on the fact England struggle against turn. This is Afghanistan's best format and they have a golden opportunity to progress and to be just two wins from glory.

Beating England and South Africa is well within their compass. They despatched England in Delhi in the 2023 World Cup and they took two off the South Africans from three in Sharjah last September.   

With Rashid Khan their attack leader, spin is an obvious weapon against two teams hardly renowned for their gumption against it. No bones about it, spin will be key to them advancing.

Group rivals have issues

It will be their point of difference on potential flat wickets in Karachi, where they meet South Africa, and Lahore for the England contest. The unrivalled ability to squeeze and stifle in flat conditions should not be underestimated. Rashid will be supported by a veritable army of tweakers, including 18-year-old whizz Ghazanfar, who has 21 wickets in 11. 

But to label Afghanistan as a one-tricky pony would be a mistake. They are the second-meanest bowling group in the world in the last 12 months, bettered only by India, because of variety. Faz Farooqi, the ace death bowler, will be paired with southpaw Fareed Ahmad in a potent new-ball attack. 

With the bat their striking deficiencies are exposed in the chaos of T20. The more circumspect approach in ODI means they are not as hamstrung. Although they are likely to be one of the slowest scorers, decent batting tracks should help them keep pace. 

Trade is on to small numbers

Rahmanullah Gurbaz, a fit-again Ibrahim Zadram, Hashmatullah Shahidi and Azmatullah Omarzai each have enough about them to support that efficient bowling unit.

England's issues are likely to be pored over for the next week with a dismal showing against India incoming. South Africa, too, have problems. They have lost pacers Gerald Coetzee and Anrich Nortje to injury. Even Australia may come back to the pack. Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood are out while Marcus Stoinis decided to retire instead of participating having been named in the squad.

Afghanistan, then, appear to be underrated. There should be an opportunity to at least trade the price in the semi-final where it is hoped they can avoid India. Even so they will be a fraction of the odds on the outright. 

When that price is gobbled up, Sportsbook are still as big as 25/126.00 about an Afghan title. There's nowt wrong with that. For another option the 7/24.50 that they qualify for the semi-finals could be the wisest bet. England are 4/51.80 for the top two which has the early hallmark of the worst bet of the tournament. Afghanistan are 14/115.00 for the final if trading is not for you. 

As expected India are hot favourites for a tournament which, if nothing else, lacks basic sporting integrity. For the second-successive global tournament they have been afforded guarantees about where they play all their matches, including the final. Having refused to travel to Pakistan they will host teams in Dubai giving them a major advantage over every other team, who will have to select squads which can adapt to different conditions. Not India.

And if things aren't going their way don't rule out them throwing their weight around to make sure that changes. They are 2/13.00 which may not prove short enough but we will check in just before the off. 

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