Caribbean Premier League Day 2 Tips: Phillips can turn the screw

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Our cricket correspondent, Ed Hawkins, has all the trends and stats for the action on Wednesday from the Brian Lara Stadium in Tarouba...

"The pitch should be at its best for batting early on in the tournament. Even so, the side batting first may reckon that 165 may be more than competitive. Keeping low numbers on your side on the innings runs markets is a strategy for the entire competition."

Jamaica Tallawahs v St Lucia Zouks
Wednesday 18 August 15:00
Live on Betfair Video

Tallawahs muscle

Jamaica are high on brawn. Could they suffer for a lack of brains? There is no doubt they are a powerful team with the likes of opener Glen Phillips, Rovman Powell and all-rounders Andre Russell and Carlos Brathwaite. But they're not cute. When it spins the batting could struggle. That's why we'd like to see Jermaine Blackwood in the middle order. Sandeep Lamichhane and Mujeeb-ur-Rahman are an excellent spin pairing, though.

Possible XI Phillips, Walton, Blackwood, Russell, Brathwaite, Powell, Bonner, Lamichhane, Mujeeb, Thomas, Lewis

Zouks depleted

The Zouks are probably one of the most unpopular betting prospects of all time in franchise cricket. They are reliably poor. Even when they are good they somehow contrive to get beat.

It is entirely in keeping with their reputation that due to the pandemic they have lost players who could have turned them around. Colin Ingram and Rilee Rossouw will be missed. Their batting looks weak as a result and while they have a plethora of spinners to choose from, they don't have stand-out quality.

Possible XI Fletcher, Melius, Cornwall, Chase, Zadran, Nabi, Sammy, Holder, McCoy, Williams, Khan

Last year head-to-heads

Zouks 169-6 (Cornwall 51) chased Jamaica 165-7 (Williams 3-27)
Zouks 171-5 (Cornwall 75, Thomas 3-26) chased Jamaica 170-5 (Phil-lips 58, McCoy 2-32)

Pitch report

There have now been ten CPL matches played at the Brian Lara Stadium in Tarouba. The first-innings scores (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first): 144-2/153-1/171-1/160-1/147-2/165-1/135-2/159-2/168-2/159-1.

The pitch should be at its best for batting early on in the tournament. Even so, the side batting first may reckon that 165 may be more than competitive. Keeping low numbers on your side on the innings runs markets is a strategy for the entire competition.

Tallawahs
Ave score for
151
Ave score against 155
Zouks
Ave score for
146
Ave score against 151

Zouks terrible at defending

Jamaica are mighty short to arrest their own Zouks-style slump. They finished bottom last season, winning just twice, so there won't be a huge rush to get with them at the [1.60] mark.

They have a close season of upheaval with coach Ramnaresh Sarwan leaving. That's not necessarily a bad thing as he seemed a divisive figure.

For Zouks to cause a chock at [2.50], they will be best served batting second as they have a 21% win rate defending. If the toss goes their way, their spinners might be able to tie down Jamaica's big hitters enough for a trade. This venue has the second-lowest proportion of sixes hit in CPL so it's a major test for the Tallawahs.

Tops value

Phillips has a win rate of 47.% on the top bats. That's the best in the tournament. The 5/2 Sportsbook offer about him outscoring Jamaica team-mates is therefore value.

Look out for Kimani Melius, the Zouks opener. He is a superstar in the making and the 9/2 is generous.

Jamaica's Lamichhane is our pick for top tournament wicket-taker. He returns 45% of the time in individual innings. Sportsbook go 5/2.

Russell is 5/2 for most sixes in the match. Powell, also a monstrous hitter, is 5s.

Kesrick Williams has a two-year return rate of 56% and team-mate Obed McCoy 58%. Williams is 5/2 and McCoy 11/4. We'll go with the former because the study period is four games longer.


Guyana Amazon Warriors v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots
Wednesday 19 August 22:30
TV: live on Betfair Video

Warriors sore

Warriors suffered an early psychological blow, losing by four wickets to their main rivals for the title, Trinbago. They will be a little worried at their failure to defend 8.5 an over after posting 144 for five in a rain-affected match.

What will ire punters is their call to bat Ross Taylor ahead of the explosive Nic Pooran, although Shimron Hetmyer's 44-ball 63 couldn't have been trumped. We also note Chris Green, he of the remodelled action, going for more than ten an over with the ball.

Possible XI King, Hemraj, Hetmyer, Taylor, Pooran, Rutherford, Paul, Naveen, Shepherd, Green, Tahir

Unbalanced

Patriots should have two points on the board. Instead they're wondering how they allowed Tridents to escape from eight for three and then 69 for five to post 153. The answer will be a lack of spin control. They only picked one - Ish Sodhi - and he was expensive. If they keep making that mistake, they're going to find life difficult.

With the bat they made a fast start but spin from Rashid Khan and Mitchell Santner tied them down. Imran Khan would be a decent change after game one.

Possible XI Lewis, Lynn, De Silva, Dunk, Ramdin, Joseph, Tanvir, Imran Khan, Sodhi, Cottrell, Emrit

Last year's head-to-heads

Guyana 122-3 (King 49, Emrit 1-15) chased Patriots 121 (Brooks 34, Tahir 2-17)
Guyana 159-2 (Hetmyer 70*, Cottrell 1-35) chased Patriots 153-8

Pitch report

There have now been ten CPL matches played at the Brian Lara Stadium in Tarouba. The first-innings scores (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first): 144-2/153-1/171-1/160-1/147-2/165-1/135-2/159-2/168-2/159-1.

Guyana underpriced

Guyana are [1.68] to get off the mark. That could be one of the biggest prices we see all season, apart from their matches against TKR>

Against an unbalanced Patriots team who might be slow to cotton on to the need for spin, many will reckon that's a [price worth taking. In time we expect to see Guyana not much above [1.60].

Tops value

Sheldon Cottrell is returning money on top bowler 50% of the time in the last two years. Sportsbook have boosted huis price to 2/1 for top Patriots bowler.

Tahir has a 40.9% rate for top Guyana bowler. He's also been boosted to 2/1.


***

Caribbean Premier League Preview Part I on Cricket...Only Bettor

Caribbean Premier League Preview Part II on Cricket...Only Bettor


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