MI Emirates v Dubai Capitals
Monday 13 January, 14.30
TV: live on Zee
MI Emirates v Dubai Capitals ILT20 tips
Dubai Capitals downed the holders in the opener by one run. It was a thrilling, low-scoring contest with the Capitals defending 133. But one has to question the decision-making by Emirates, who held Nic Pooran back to No 5. Do they win that game if he bats in his preferred No 3 slot? Probably.
There is a toss bias for the side chasing at Abu Dhabi for day matches. Does this hold up in night games? A touch. Nineteen wins from the last 34 is not as chunky as 12 from 16. But it would stand to reason if the match odds market was a choice affair until the flip.
The runs per over in that study period at night is 8.13 so we don't expect big scores although more than 170 has been busted in each of the last three innings. If we filter the runs to ILt20 only, the rate drops to 7.9. Under 150 has won four times in eight so extreme unders is in play. Last season Capitals were able to defend 147 on the head-to-head at this venue.
With runs in short supply, the sixes market has appeal. We're keen to go unders on Sportsbook's quote of 5/61.84 at 13.5. That has been a winner in 13 of the last 17 and historically the trend holds.
Capitals remain without Sam Billings and Jake Fraser-McGurk, who appear to still be involved in the Bash. Fraser-McGurk may be imminent, though.
On tops bats, big prices lower down always appeal on a low-scorer. Sikandar Raza has appeal at 6s for Emirates while Kieron Pollard has a win in him still at 9/110.00.
MI Cape Town v Paarl Royals
Monday 14 January, 15:30
TV: live on Sky Sports
MI Cape Town v Paarl Royals SAT20 tips
There is no accounting for half-wittery in life. Its impact can be a lot more serious than costing you a few punts but it feels pertinent to discuss some of the bonkers decision-making that has been taking place in the SAT20 - and we are not even through the first week yet.
We can do all the eye-bleeding research we want as gamblers to try to find an edge. What we cannot legislate for, however, is tactics and selection which make no sense.
A few lowlights have included Kane Williamson playing for Durban Super Giants, the hitherto fastest-scoring team in the comp. Quite what they think the human snail adds is a mystery. He has almost cost them one game and surely will down a voucher ot two, particularly as he is delaying Heinrich Klaasen to the crease.
Next up is Sunrisers, the supposed brainiacs of the tournament. Well, how about this for logic? Ottniel Baartman is their best bowler and was winning top wicket-taker 50% of the time in two years. So when defending 176 against Paarl on a bowler-friendly surface they used him as their sixth bowler. Incredible.
Cape Town and Paarl can't be criticised just yet. Cape Town have a win and a loss while Paarl are buoyant after beating Sunrisers thanks to teenager Lhuan-dre Pretorius' 51-ball 97. The toss is key. Chasing has been the way to go at Newlands in day-nighters with 15 won from the last 24 and even from the last 12.
We're not sure why Andile Phehlukwayo was not involved for Paarl last time but the 6/17.00 is way to big on two-year win rate for top bowler. Money back oif he doesn't play.
Back Andile Phehlukwayo top Paarl bowler
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