Dubai Capitals v MI Emirates ILT20 Tips: Capitals in the chase a value bet

Dubai Capitals v MI Emirates
Saturday 11 January, 14:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Dubai Capitals v MI Emirates ILT20 team news

It would be a surprise if Jake Fraser-McGurk was available for Capitals as Australia players are hanging on at the Bash for now. That means Scotland's Brandon McMullen could get a shot at the opening berth. David Warner will definitely not be available yet. Sam Billings could be on his way but this game comes too soon. Dusmantha Chameera may pip Scott Kuggelijn for a spot with the Capitals needing reinforcements for their two UAE pacers.

Possible Capitals XI: Rossington, McMullen, Hope, Powell, Raza, Najibullah, Shanaka, Naib/Kuggelijn, Chameera, Akif, Haider

MI Emirates, the holders, are looking strong again. They could well be at full-strength for the first match with no Bash players in their squad. Nic Pooran is the eyecatcher at No 3 while UAE opener Muhammad Waseem is strong, too. They will be well-led by Kieron Pollard.

Possible MI XI: Waseem, Banton/Fletcher, Pooran, Kusal, Pollard, Mousley, Akeal, Thompson, Farooqi, Rohid, Salamkheil

Dubai Capitals v MI Emirates ILT20 pitch report

Dubai is a ground for the chaser. In the last four years there have been 50 night matches and 33 of those have been won by the team fielding first. That's 66%. Clearly it would be folly to ignore such a trend. The runs per over in the study period is 7.87. In ILT20 (12 games), it is higher at 8.2. In first innings 170 or more has been busted five times. MI were the top-ranked team for batting power so for going overs on that market it would make sense to do so if they were batting first. They were also top for bowling economy.

Dubai Capitals v MI Emirates ILT20 match prediction

The match odds are clearly in favour of MI, who are no better than 1.625/8. Capitals are 2.3411/8. Although we expect Emirates to have a real crack at defending their title, this is a stiff test against the team they beat in last year's final.

And there is a wider cricket betting point to be made. Should any team, regardless of who they are or what they've won, be such skinny odds when you have a 66% bias on the toss? No. So Capitals are value. At the very least they fli[p favouritism with the bias on side.

Dubai Capitals v MI Emirates ILT20 player bets

We await Sportsbook prices for player bets but the main names to check with win rates for top bat and bowler respectively are: Pooran (20%), Billings (20%) and Faz Farooqi (22%). We suspect only Billings would be a 'wrong' price but it would be a surprise if he was playing anyway. Look out for a rick on McMullen, too.

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