Giro d'Italia Stage 15 Tips: Yates and Carapaz most likely

Jack Houghton
21 May 2022
4:00 min read

Richard Carapaz (right) is more daring than the archetype Ineos rider of old

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

A lot will depend on the intentions of Team Ineos, writes Jack Houghton, but if they continue to ride with derring-do, Carapaz is value

"The Ineos of late - often spearheaded by Carapaz's buccaneering spirit - is daringly attacking..."

1 pt Back Simon Yates at 9.008/1

1 pt Back Richard Carapaz at 22.0021/1

What's the stage like?

177km long, and most of it climbing.

The stage slowly climbs the foothills of the Western Alps in the first half before three categorised climbs wait one-after-the-other in the second.

The summit finish is the easiest of the three climbs, but it's likely the contenders will be whittled away by then, such is the attritional nature of what precedes it. And with a rest day following this stage, expect riders to be prepared to put a little more on the line.

Who are the favourites?

Simon Yates (9.008/1), a winning recommended bet on Stage 14, just about tops most lists. Now clearly recovered from the injury that saw him capitulate on Stage 9, he can likely profit again from his standing in the General Classification, knowing that the Pink Jersey hopefuls are not going to exert any effort in shutting down his attacks.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

A valid case could be made for several riders who can cope with this kind of terrain, including Lennard Kamna (14.0013/1), Bauke Mollema (18.0017/1), Giulio Ciccone (20.0019/1) and Tobias Foss (20.0019/1).

But their chances will largely depend on the intent of Ineos and Richard Carapaz (22.0021/1). If Ineos are happy to let a breakaway go, riding a tempo that is calculated to deliver Carapaz to the end of the Giro in the Pink Jersey, then any number of riders in the peloton could pick up the win.

The Ineos of late, though - often spearheaded by Carapaz's buccaneering spirit - has typically been more daringly attacking. It's for this reason that Carapaz is also worth an interest, especially at such big odds.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

There is a clarity to the General Classification now. Those who followed the pre-race advice will be mourning the abandonment through illness of Romain Bardet, but remain in a strong position with Richard Carapaz, who it is expected will slowly ride Jai Hindley into submission during the punishing week to come.

Expect the effort to start on this stage.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Jack Houghton's Giro d'Italia 2022 P&L:
Staked: 25.0 Returned: 59.9 P/L: +35.9