Giro d'Italia Stage 14 Tips: Yates to lodge challenge to Poel

Jack Houghton
20 May 2022
3:00 min read

Simon Yates is on a rescue mission and will relish the course

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Another open stage where stakes should be small, writes Jack Houghton, who thinks Mathieu van der Poel is underrated by the market

"The problem for punters is that it's one of those days where forty bets might all lose, so it's worth seeking big-priced value..."

0.5pt Back Simon Yates at 6.005/1

0.5pt Back Mathieu van der Poel at 60.0059/1

What's the stage like?

The shortest of the Giro - at 153km - may also be the most exciting. Meandering around the outskirts of Turin, this circuit course includes six categorised climbs and a series of other lumps and bumps that means riders will barely have a moment's flat all day.

The climbs, whilst not long, are vicious, with a section of 20% gradient on the Maddelena the fruitiest. And if the action doesn't excite there, the finish should: it drops 150m in the last 3km and includes a series of sharp turns before a flat last 500m along the river to the line.

It will be a miracle if there aren't some spills as the one-day riders look to have their moment in the sun.

Who are the favourites?

Simon Yates (6.005/1) has been the subject of early interest and it's easy to see why: it's the kind of course he excels on, and with his General Classification implosion on Stage 9, a stage win must be his prime objective. The peloton will not be overly concerned with closing him down and he's worth an interest, although keep stakes small: there are still uncertainties around his fitness.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

A valid case can be made for a couple of dozen riders, among them the likes of Lennard Kamna (14.0013/1), Davide Formolo (14.0013/1), Koen Bouwman (18.0017/1), and Giulio Ciccone (24.0023/1).

The problem for punters is that it's one of those days where forty bets might all lose, so it's worth seeking big-priced value. Strangely, that comes in the shape of Mathieu van der Poel (60.0059/1), who is listed at big odds with several of the fixed-odds merchants. The rationale is likely that the course looks too hard for him, but it's worth remembering that he's had plenty of successful days on similar courses - such as in Coppi e Bartali earlier this season - and this is the last day in the Giro he has a realistic chance of winning, so his motivation should be high.

What effect will it have on the overall markets?

This is a day where the General Classification contenders could conceivably challenge for stage honours, so expect some time gaps in the race for the Pink Jersey. These should be small, though.

*Odds correct at the time of writing

Jack Houghton's Giro d'Italia 2022 P&L:
Staked: 24.0 Returned: 56.9 P/L: +32.9